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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)

2016-08-05 10:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF EARL NOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 the center of EARL was located near 18.4, -92.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 12

2016-08-05 10:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050836 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 ...CENTER OF EARL NOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 92.8W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde Mexico. Interests elsewhere along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of Earl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 92.8 West. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will be moving near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche today and tonight, then moving into the southeastern mainland of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely today or tonight, with weakening expected on Saturday when Earl moves into mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the warning area today and tonight. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2016-08-05 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 050836 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0900 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 28(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FRONTERA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Advisory Number 12

2016-08-05 10:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050836 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0900 UTC FRI AUG 05 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CIUDAD DEL CARMEN WESTWARD TO LAGUNA VERDE MEXICO. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 92.8W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 92.8W AT 05/0900Z...INLAND AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 92.3W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 94.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.7N 95.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.9N 97.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 92.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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