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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-09-27 10:44:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270844 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 51.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.9N 52.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.8N 53.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.7N 54.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 55.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 58.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 51.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-09-27 04:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 431 WTNT43 KNHC 270249 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sam this afternoon and evening found that the major hurricane likely peaked in intensity at around 135 kt with a central pressure of about 929 mb between 1900-2200 UTC when the eye contracted down to about 7 nmi in diameter. Since that time, however, wind and radar data from the aircraft reveal that Sam has been undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), including significant erosion of the eyewall convection in the eastern semicircle, which has resulted in the central pressure increasing by at least 14 mb in only a few hours. The eye diameter has also doubled in size now. The ERC is also confirmed by the ragged inner-core convection and cloud-filled eye that have developed in satellite imagery. The advisory intensity of 125 kt is based on a blend of the available reliable SFMR surface wind data and flight-level wind data, and also using the pressure-wind relationship for a 943-mb central pressure. The initial motion estimate is now 315/06 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Sam is forecast by the global and regional models to remain entrenched across the central and eastern Atlantic for the next several days, resulting in the hurricane moving northwestward for the 72 hours. Thereafter, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to dig southward just off the U.S. east coast, creating a deep southerly flow regime that will act to accelerate Sam northward on days 4 and 5. The new NHC track forecast is similar the previous advisory, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models through 72 hours. In the 96-120 hour period, the models diverge significantly on when and where Sam will begin moving out toward the north, and the NHC track forecast favors the more eastward GFS solution since that model has been performing quite well with Sam thus far. Now that Sam is undergoing an ERC, fluctuations in intensity could occur for the next day or two while the vertical wind shear remains low at least than 10 kt. Thereafter, a slow weakening trend is expected due to a modest increase in the wind shear from the southwest and occasional intrusions of drier mid-level air. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, mainly due to the lower initial intensity, and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus model intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 14.7N 50.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 15.3N 51.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 16.2N 52.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 17.0N 53.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 17.8N 55.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 18.7N 56.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.0N 58.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 23.4N 61.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 28.4N 62.6W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-09-27 04:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270248 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 50.8W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 50.8W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.3N 51.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.2N 52.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 53.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 55.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.7N 56.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.4N 61.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.4N 62.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 50.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-09-26 22:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262035 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 Sam has found a way to strengthen some more today. The ring of intense convection surrounding the 15-n-mi-diameter eye has expanded in size over the past several hours, while cloud tops colder than -70C still completely surround the center. An earlier GMI microwave overpass revealed very strong eyewall convection tightly wrapped around the small eye, a feature oftentimes seen with intense hurricanes. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain T6.5/127 kt. However, the UW-CIMSS ADT estimate has recently increased to T6.6/130 kt. Based on the expansion of the ring of convection and a blend of these Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 130 kt for this advisory. Sam remains compact, with winds of tropical storm force extending only 70 n mi from the center. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Sam and will provide more detailed intensity data. It would not take much further expansion of the convection and cooling of the cloud tops over the inner-most core of Sam for it to become a rare Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Although plausible given the ideal environmental conditions over the next couple of days, this strengthening is not explicitly forecast to occur. The only factors within the next 2-3 days that could cause Sam to weaken would be an eyewall replacement cycle or the upwelling of cooler waters due to the hurricane's relatively slow forward motion. By 72 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should cause gradual weakening. However, given the current strength of Sam, the new forecast calls for it to remain a major hurricane throughout the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast was increased by 5 kt through 60 h due to the change in the initial intensity and remains on the high end of the guidance through that time. At 72 h and beyond, the intensity forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) model. Sam has been wobbling a little north-northwestward and has slowed down over the past few hours, but the 12-h-average motion is about 305/06 kt. A subtropical ridge centered to the northeast of the hurricane should steer it northwestward for the next 3-4 days. By late Thursday, Sam is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge and turn north-northwestward and begin to increase its forward speed as the cyclone starts to get caught up in the southerly flow between the ridge and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The various track model guidance is in better agreement today compared to yesterday, especially in the day 3-5 time frame. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various consensus track model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 14.2N 50.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.7N 51.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 15.5N 52.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 16.3N 53.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 17.2N 54.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 18.1N 55.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 19.2N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 22.1N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 26.6N 62.9W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-26 16:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 261441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 50.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 50.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.4N 51.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.2N 52.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.8N 54.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 55.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 95SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 60.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.6N 63.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
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