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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-09-25 10:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 250831 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Sam continues to rapidly intensify. Geostationary satellite and microwave images show that the storm has a very small and distinct eye surrounded by a nearly symmetric ring of cold cloud tops. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 90 to 102 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt. Although Sam is nearly a major hurricane, it remains quite compact with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to only extend 50 n mi and 15 n mi from the center, respectively. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt and is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. There has been little change to the track forecast philosophy or model guidance. Sam is expected to continue west-northwestward during the next two or three days, but it is forecast to move at a notably slower pace of 6-8 kt during most of that time period. After that time, the ridge is expected to shift eastward as a deep-layer trough becomes established over the western Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause Sam to turn northwestward and speed up some by the middle of next week. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Based on this forecast, and nearly all of the reliable guidance, Sam is expected to still be well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through day 5. Continued steady or rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two as the hurricane remains in near ideal conditions of very low wind shear and warm 29 deg C waters. However, beyond that time the shear is expected to increase a little, and that will likely cause Sam to level off in strength or weaken slightly next week. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the models in the short term, given the impressive structure of the hurricane and favorable conditions, but falls in line with the consensus aids at the longer lead times. Regardless of how strong Sam gets, nearly all of the models indicate that it will remain a powerful hurricane during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 12.8N 46.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 13.1N 48.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 13.5N 49.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 14.0N 50.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 14.7N 51.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 15.4N 52.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 16.3N 53.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 18.0N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 20.1N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-25 04:42:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250242 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 Teresa's cloud pattern is not well organized, even for a subtropical cyclone. The main convective band is rather ragged in appearance, and situated 100 n mi or more to the east and northeast of the exposed low-level center. The current intensity estimate, 40 kt, is in general agreement with the latest subtropical satellite classification from TAFB, but given the disheveled appearance of the system, this may be generous. Teresa has recently been moving more westward than northward, on the northern side of a mid-level cyclonic circulation, and the current motion estimate is an uncertain 300/9 kt. During the next day or so, the cyclone is likely to turn northward and northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough that will be moving over the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one, but along the same general trajectory. The HCCA model consensus is somewhat faster than the NHC prediction. The cyclone has been situated under an upper-level low which has kept the vertical shear fairly low thus far. However, as this low moves away from the area, Teresa will begin to experience increasing west-southwesterly shear, and no strengthening is expected. In 48 hours or so, based on the global models, the storm is forecast to become absorbed by the aforementioned trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 34.3N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 35.2N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 36.2N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 37.8N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250241 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.2N 65.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 36.2N 64.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.8N 64.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 65.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-09-25 04:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 444 WTNT43 KNHC 250234 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 Sam developed a 10-n mi wide eye in infrared satellite images a few hours ago, surrounded by a ring of cloud tops as cold as about -70 degrees Celsius. The core of the hurricane remains compact. In fact, recent Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data indicated that the radius of maximum winds is only about 6 n mi. Dvorak estimates were T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.5/77 kt from SAB at 0000 UTC, and given the additional clearing of the eye since then, Sam's intensity is raised to 85 kt. Sam has been moving toward the west-northwest during the past 6 to 12 hours with a motion of 285/12 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same, and the model guidance is packed more tightly than normal through day 5. A blocking ridge lying to the north and northwest is expected to cause Sam to slow down over the weekend and maintain a motion toward the west or west-northwest. On days 3 through 5, the ridge is expected to shift eastward, with a deep-layer trough developing over the western Atlantic. This should allow Sam to turn northwestward toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has not budged much and remains close to the TVCA consensus aid. Based on this forecast, and nearly all of the reliable guidance, Sam is expected to still be well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through day 5. Deep-layer shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for the next day or two, and Sam will be heading toward waters of higher oceanic heat content. These conditions favor continued strengthening, and the hurricane is forecast to become a major hurricane on Saturday and possibly reach a peak intensity in 2 to 3 days. For this period, the NHC forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid and is near the high end of the guidance envelope. As is usually the case with hurricanes this small and strong, fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles will be possible. On days 3 through 5, some increase in shear as Sam approaches the deep-layer western Atlantic trough is possible, and modest weakening is shown at those times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 12.4N 45.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 12.7N 47.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 13.1N 48.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 13.5N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 14.1N 51.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 14.8N 52.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 15.7N 53.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 17.4N 55.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 19.5N 58.8W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-09-25 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250233 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 45.9W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 45.9W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 45.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.7N 47.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.1N 48.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.1N 51.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.8N 52.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 53.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.4N 55.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 58.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 45.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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