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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-09-30 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300246 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 26.7W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 26.7W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 26.2W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 8.9N 28.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 9.7N 30.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.6N 32.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.8N 33.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.4N 35.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 36.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.4N 26.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 29

2021-09-29 22:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 108 WTNT43 KNHC 292051 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 Sam continues to exhibit a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite imagery, although there is some asymmetry of the coldest-topped convection around the center. The hurricane is also maintaining numerous banding features with well-defined upper-level anticyclonic outflow. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane showed peak 700 mb fight-level winds of 130 kt in the northeast quadrant which, using the standard reduction, corresponds to maximum surface winds of 117 kt. However, the maximum SFMR-observed surface winds were 103 kt. Based on these data, with more emphasis on the flight-level winds, the current intensity estimate is held at 115 kt. The aircraft also measured a minimum central pressure of 945 mb by dropsonde. Since the hurricane is forecast to remain in an environment of low vertical shear and to remain over warm waters through 48 hours, Sam could restrengthen a little more during the next day or so. Since the Hurricane Hunters reported a concentric eyewall, short-term strengthening may be curtailed until the eyewall replacement cycle completes. Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening is likely due to cooler SSTs and increasing shear. The official intensity forecast is in very good agreement with the latest corrected consensus prediction. Sam will likely be close to extratropical transition around day 5. The initial motion is still northwestward, or 310/8 kt. During the next few days, Sam is likely to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a large subtropical high pressure system centered over the eastern Atlantic. A turn to the north-northeast and northeast is expected later in the forecast period as Sam begins to encounter the flow on the southern side of a large mid-tropospheric trough moving through Atlantic Canada. The track guidance models remain in excellent agreement through 72 hours, including the time that Sam passes by Bermuda. At days 4-5 there is some divergence of the model guidance, apparently due to how Sam may interact with the trough. Most notably the ECMWF is a lot slower than the other global models suggesting that the trough will at least partially bypass it in that case. Not much change has been made to the previous official forecast, however, and the NHC track remains very close to the TVCN dynamical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a day or so, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 20.2N 57.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 21.2N 58.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 23.1N 60.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 28.3N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 31.0N 61.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 33.6N 59.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 37.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 42.0N 48.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 29

2021-09-29 22:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 292049 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 57.6W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 57.6W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.2N 58.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.1N 60.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.3N 61.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.0N 61.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 37.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 42.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 57.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-09-29 22:43:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292043 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 The cloud pattern continues to exhibit a large circulation with numerous curved bands surrounding the center. The strongest thunderstorms remain on the system's west side. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have both increased to 2.5/35 kt, and on that basis, the cyclone has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. Victor is still on a west-northwest course at about 11 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone is expected to continue west-northwestward during the next couple of days as it remains steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. By late Friday, however, the models show the western periphery of the ridge being eroded due to a mid- to upper-level low over the subtropical central Atlantic. As a result, the cyclone should turn northwestward by Friday night and then northward late this weekend or early next week. There remains a fair amount of spread in the timing and location of the northward turn with the GFS and HWRF still on the right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF showing the slowest and westernmost solution. Overall, the consensus models have not changed much and neither has the official track forecast. The storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next couple of days. During that time period, Victor is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C waters while embedded within a moist airmass with very low wind shear (less than 10 kt). Rapid intensification sometimes occurs when conditions are this favorable, however, since the storm is broad and does not yet have an inner core, gradual strengthening seems more reasonable. The NHC forecast brings Victor to hurricane intensity in 36 hours. In a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 8.3N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 8.8N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 9.5N 28.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 10.3N 30.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 11.4N 32.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 12.8N 34.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 14.7N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 19.3N 38.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 24.9N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-09-29 22:42:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 292042 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 25.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 25.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 25.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 8.8N 26.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 9.5N 28.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.3N 30.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.4N 32.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.8N 34.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.7N 35.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.3N 38.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.9N 40.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.3N 25.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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