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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-09-23 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-09-23 04:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230237 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 35.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 35.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 34.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.4N 37.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.9N 39.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.4N 42.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.0N 44.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.6N 46.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.2N 47.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 14.5N 50.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 53.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 35.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Remnants of Peter Forecast Discussion Number 18

2021-09-23 04:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230237 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Peter Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Although a low-level swirl can still be seen in infrared satellite imagery, this feature has continued to lose definition. A recently arriving partial ASCAT-A overpass shows that the circulation has become more elongated, and Peter lacks a well-defined center. In addition, the system has not produced any organized deep convection in quite some time. The cloudiness and convective activity that has been occuring over the western Atlantic has been located along a trough axis well northeast of the decaying circulation center. As a result, Peter no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt in accordance with the ASCAT data. The remnants of Peter are expected to remain within an area of strong upper-level westerly winds, and further weakening should occur over the next day or two. The system has been moving slowly north-northwestward or 335/4 kt. A weakness in the low-level ridge should allow the remnants to turn northward tomorrow, and this general motion should continue through the end of the week. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information on the remnants of Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 22.1N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 17

2021-09-22 22:58:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 222058 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Peter continues to just barely maintain its classification as a tropical cyclone. While the low-level circulation has remained intact today, the convection continues to be located well downshear to the east. However, there have been a few convective elements forming a bit closer to the center recently and that is the primarily justification for maintaining advisories on Peter as a tropical cyclone this afternoon. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt given the earlier scatterometer data, though this might be generous. Continued strong southwesterly vertical wind shear within a dry mid-level environment should ultimately strip the remaining convection away from Peter, with the tropical cyclone expected to finally peter out as a post-tropical remnant low in the next 12 hours. The depression has been moving very slowly recently, with an estimated north-northwestward motion of 340/4 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and then north-northeastward following a weakness in the low-level ridge until the system finally opens up into a trough, sometime in the 48 to 60 hour period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 21.7N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 22.5N 66.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 23.5N 66.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 24.4N 66.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 25.6N 65.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 17

2021-09-22 22:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 222055 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 66.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 66.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 66.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 66.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 66.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.4N 66.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 65.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 66.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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