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Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-09-23 22:59:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 232059 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Sam Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 Sam could be in the beginning stages of developing a small inner-core this afternoon as a central dense overcast is beginning to take shape. On geostationary visible satellite imagery, the storm has occasionally exhibited a clear area, though this feature has been tilted a bit southeast of the estimated low-level center position. In addition, overshooting convective cloud tops have been recirculating cyclonically around this feature, suggesting convective symmetrization that may help shield the low-level vortex from dry-air intrusion as seen earlier on the northwest side of Sam. Unfortunately, I have not received a high resolution microwave pass over Sam in 9-12 hours, so there remains some uncertainty on the structure underneath the cirrus canopy. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB were 55-kt and 45-kt respectively. Taking a blend of these intensity estimates yields 50-kt for this advisory. Sam's estimated motion is nearly identical to this morning, moving north of due west at 280/14 kt. A large and anomalously strong mid-level ridge is located poleward of Sam and should maintain the current west to west-northwest heading over the next 2-3 days. However, this ridge-axis is forecast to build in to the northwest ahead of Sam, which is likely to gradually slow down this forward motion over the next few days. In fact, Sam is forecast to move unusually slow for a tropical cyclone in the deep tropics east of the Lesser Antilles. Afterwards, a weakness in the ridge to the northwest is forecast to gradually develop as a broad deep-layer trough parks itself just offshore of the eastern United States by early next week. This could potentially allow Sam to gain a bit more latitude at a somewhat faster forward motion as the ridge axis shifts back east. The track guidance this cycle has slowed down a bit compared to this morning and is also a bit further south in the early portion of the forecast. The NHC official track will follow suit this advisory, though is not quite as slow as the GFS model. It is interesting to note that both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance this afternoon shows a significant spread in track solutions by day 5 in the cross-track direction, so this track forecast is a bit more uncertain than usual. With the apparent improvement in inner-core structure inferred on satellite today, Sam appears poised to rapidly intensify in the short-term. In fact, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance is now explicitly forecasting rapid intensification over the next 24-48 hours. This seems feasible given that the guidance is forecasting 5 kt or less vertical wind shear over the next 60 hours as the cyclone traverses over warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. Thus, the intensity guidance in the short-term has been raised once again, now showing a 50-kt increase in intensity over the next 48 hours taking Sam to major hurricane intensity by Saturday afternoon. Remarkably, this rapid intensification is still below the latest HCCA and LGEM guidance over this time span. After this period, Sam is likely to start undergoing inner core fluctuations, related to eyewall replacement cycles that are challenging to forecast far in advance. A modest increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear could also occur in the day 3-5 period. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast still tops off Sam as 110-kt hurricane by the end of the forecast period, which is on the high end of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 11.1N 39.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 11.9N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 12.6N 47.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 13.1N 48.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 13.7N 50.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 15.2N 52.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

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Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-09-23 22:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 232050 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 39.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 39.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 39.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.9N 44.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.6N 47.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 15.2N 52.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 39.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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Robust growth forecast for SVOD revenue in India

2021-09-23 19:05:27| Digital TV News

September 23, 2021 Subscription video on demand (SVOD) revenue in India is expected to grow at a robust compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.9% from US$0.9bn in 2020 to US$1.9bn in 2025, according to GlobalData.

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Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-09-23 17:00:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231500 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Sam Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 Overnight and this morning, the satellite structure of the tropical cyclone has been improving, with prominent curved bands, and obvious low-level cloud motions that indicate the circulation is becoming established within the convection. In particular, an SSMIS microwave pass at 0653 UTC indicated a substantial improvement in the convective structure, with a well-defined curved band wrapping three-quarters of the way around the center in both the 91- and 37-GHz channels. ASCAT-B wind retrievals at 1234 UTC also indicated a tight, well-defined circulation had formed, with peak winds of 44-kt on the north side of the vortex. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are now T3.5/55-kt from SAB and T2.5/35-kt from TAFB. In addition, the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON were at 35-kt and 43-kt respectively. Given the recent scatterometer data, the intensity has been set to 45-kt for this advisory. Thus, Tropical Depression 18 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Sam. It is noteworthy that this is the 2nd earliest formation of the 18th named storm in the Atlantic basin, moving ahead of the 2005 hurricane season, and only trailing last year. Sam continues to move to the west-northwest with an estimated motion at 280/14 kt. A prominent mid-level ridge remains entrenched to the north of the cyclone, and this feature should continue to steer Sam to the west-northwest over the next 2-3 days. Over this period, the ridge orientation actually shifts more westward ahead of the cyclone as a deep-layer trough digs in well northeast of Sam. This gradual change in the synoptic pattern should also result in a slowdown in Sam's forward motion over the next 72 hours. While the track guidance remains in good agreement over this period, larger spread begins to take shape beyond the day 3 forecast. Similar to yesterday, the ECMWF model and its ensemble mean flanks the southwest side of the guidance envelop, while the GFS is on the northeast side by day 5. These differences appear to be partially related to the mid-level ridge intensity on the western end, which could begin to be eroded by a mid-latitude trough off the eastern United States in 120-h. In addition, differences in both the size and intensity of Sam may also play a role in its ultimate track evolution. For this advisory, the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the consensus aids TCVN and TCVE, which represents a slight shift westward and a bit faster motion compared to the previous forecast. Because Sam is forecast to slow down, it remains too early to determine what impacts, direct or indirect, could be felt by the Lesser Antilles by this cyclone. The previously mentioned SSMIS microwave imagery also indicated that the low-level center has become better aligned with the mid-level vortex, perhaps a bit earlier than anticipated given the scatterometer data from last night. This improvement in structure, combined with favorable low vertical wind shear under 10 kt and warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures, argues for significant intensification. In fact, the GFS-SHIPS rapid intensification index now give Sam a 39 percent chance of a 65-kt increase over the next 72 hours, which is more than 7 times the climatological value. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised quite a bit from the prior one, especially in the short-term. The latest forecast now makes Sam a hurricane in 36 hours, and a major hurricane in 72 hours. This intensity forecast is just a shade under the latest HCCA consensus aid. Thereafter, a more gradual intensification rate is forecast. By this period it is possible that Sam could undergo hard to predict inner-core changes such as eyewall replacement cycles. In addition, the ECMWF-SHIPS suggests that the shear may also increase a little in days 4-5 which also argues for a bit slower rate of intensification for this period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 10.9N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.3N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 11.9N 42.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 12.3N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 12.7N 46.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 13.2N 48.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 15.3N 52.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 17.4N 55.2W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

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Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-09-23 16:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 245 WTNT23 KNHC 231454 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 37.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.3N 40.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.9N 42.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.3N 45.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.7N 46.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.2N 48.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.3N 52.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.4N 55.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 38.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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