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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-09-24 16:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 241442 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 43.7W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 43.7W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 43.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.0N 45.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.3N 47.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.7N 48.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.1N 49.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.7N 50.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.6N 52.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 16.4N 54.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 18.2N 57.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 43.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-09-24 10:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240831 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 Sam continues to rapidly intensify. Satellite images show a small, but well-developed inner core and pronounced curved bands that wrap most of the way around the center. There are some dry slots, however, between the core and bands. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 77 kt, and based on that data and the continued improvement in the cyclone's structure, the initial wind speed is increased to 65 kt. This makes Sam a hurricane, the seventh one of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. It should be noted that Sam has a compact wind field, with hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds estimated to only extend outward up to 15 and 50 n mi from the center, respectively. Sam is moving westward at about 13 kt, and this general motion should continue for another 12 to 24 hours as it moves in the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest are expected, and the official forecast has Sam moving at a slow pace of only 6-8 kt during the 48-96-hour time period. By the middle of next week, the ridge is forecast to slide eastward as a trough moves over the western Atlantic. In response, the hurricane will likely turn northwestward as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The models have changed little this cycle with the GFS still on the northern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the southern side. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models, and near the consensus aids. The large scale environmental conditions all appear favorable for continued rapid intensification during the next day or so as the hurricane is expected to remain over warm 29 deg C waters and in very low wind shear conditions. All of the SHIPS rapid intensification indices are well above the climatological means, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for Sam to become a major hurricane by early Saturday. Beyond a couple of days, the environment is likely to become a little less ideal, and most of the models show Sam leveling off in strength, and so does the official forecast. This intensity prediction lies near a blend of the FSSE, HCCA, and IVCN consensus models. Regardless of the details, Sam is expected to be a significant hurricane during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 11.5N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 11.7N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 12.1N 45.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 12.5N 47.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 12.9N 48.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 13.4N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 14.1N 51.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 15.9N 53.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 17.8N 56.6W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-24 10:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240830 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 42.2W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 42.2W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 41.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.7N 44.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.1N 45.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.5N 47.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.9N 48.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.4N 50.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 51.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 15.9N 53.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 17.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 42.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-24 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240240 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Sam Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 Microwave data from around the time of the previous advisory revealed that Sam has developed a well-defined inner core, including a nearly closed eyewall feature in the 91-GHz channel. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to T3.5 and T4.0, respectively, and the initial intensity is therefore estimated to be 60 kt. Sam's 24-hour intensity change qualifies as rapid intensification, since the cyclone was only a 30-kt tropical depression at this time yesterday. Sam is small, however. Recent scatterometer data showed that tropical-storm-force winds only extend a maximum of 40 n mi from the center, and the radius of maximum winds is estimated to be about 15 n mi. This small size is likely to have implications on Sam's future intensity. Sam is moving a little slower toward the west (280/13 kt). A mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to build across the Caribbean Sea and extend northeastward over the central Atlantic during the next few days. This blocking high is expected to cause Sam to slow down to 6 to 7 kt by late Saturday and Sunday while it maintains a westward to west-northwestward heading. Global models suggest the ridge may weaken and shift eastward a bit by days 4 and 5, allowing Sam to turn to the northwest and speed up a little by the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA models lie along the southern edge of the main pack of models, while the ECENS ensemble mean is even farther south. The GFS and the HMON are on the northern side. Partially due to an adjustment of the initial position, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted southward a bit from the previous forecast, and it lies just south of the TVCA consensus aid--but not as far to the left as the previously mentioned southern models. Environmental conditions and Sam's structure and size are ideal for continued rapid intensification (RI). The SHIPS RI index for a 30-kt increase in 24 hours is nearly 50 percent. The DTOPS methodology, which uses inputs from the statistical-dynamical and deterministic models, shows RI indices for various forecast periods exceeding 90 percent. Therefore, rapid strengthening is being forecast at least for the next 36 hours, with Sam becoming a hurricane very soon and then a major hurricane by Friday night or Saturday morning. One caveat to this forecast is that although Sam's small size more readily allows for RI to occur, it can also make the cyclone more prone to weakening if, for example, vertical shear increases. By 48 hours, the intensity models show the strengthening trend leveling off, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Fluctuations in intensity from days 3 through 5 are likely, both due to normal internal dynamics within the storm and the cyclone's response to the surrounding environment in relation to its small size. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 11.2N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 11.4N 42.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 11.8N 45.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 12.1N 46.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 12.5N 47.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 13.0N 49.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 13.5N 50.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 15.3N 53.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 17.3N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-24 04:39:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 660 WTNT23 KNHC 240239 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 40.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.4N 42.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.8N 45.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.1N 46.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.5N 47.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.0N 49.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.5N 50.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 15.3N 53.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.3N 56.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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