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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-25 22:40:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 252040 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 64.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 64.3W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 64.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 35.7N 63.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 64.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON TERESA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/LATTO
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-09-25 22:40:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252039 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 After a brief hiccup, Sam has resumed rapid strengthening and now shows a 12-15 n mi wide well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -70C. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 115 kt at 18Z, and objective intensity estimates have also been near 115 kt. Since the organization has increased some since 18Z, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to Sam to provide a better estimate of the intensity. The hurricane has good cirrus outflow in all quadrants. However, a large arc cloud to the northwest of the central core suggests dry air is present in that area. The initial motion is still west-northwestward or 290/9. There are again no changes to the forecast track reasoning. The weak subtropical ridge currently to the north of Sam is forecast to shift eastward as a large deep-layer mid-latitude trough develops over the western Atlantic. This evolution should cause Sam to continue west-northwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest. Some increase in forward speed is likely by 120 h as Sam encounters stronger steering flow. The track guidance has shifted a little to the north and east since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction, with the new track lying between the HCCA corrected consensus model and the other consensus models. Based on the NHC forecast, and all of the other guidance, Sam is expected to still be well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through day 5. The current strengthening is expected to continue for the next 6-12 h, and based on this the new intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 130 kt. After the peak, Sam is expected to be in an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear for at least the next 3-4 days. This suggests the intensity will be controlled mainly by eyewall replacement cycles and possible intrusions of dry air, which would cause some short-term fluctuations in intensity. In the bigger picture, the intensity guidance calls for a slow weakening during the 24-120 h forecast period, and the new intensity forecast does the same. However, it is likely that Sam will remain a major hurricane through 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 13.3N 48.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 13.7N 49.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 14.9N 51.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 15.7N 52.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 17.4N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 19.5N 58.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 22.5N 61.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-09-25 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 252038 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 48.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 48.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 48.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.9N 51.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.7N 52.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.4N 55.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Subtropical Depression Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-25 16:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 897 WTNT44 KNHC 251445 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Teresa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Teresa has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours now. The cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds and a band of showers and thunderstorms located about 250 n mi north of the center. This patch of convection is detached from the low-level circulation, and it appears to be more involved with an upper-level trough to the northeast of Teresa. A 1210 UTC ASCAT-A pass shows that the winds within that convection have decreased, with several vectors in the 25 to 30 kt range. Based on that data, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Teresa a subtropical depression. Teresa is unlikely to redevelop any convection near its center as strong west-southwesterly wind shear continues over the cyclone. This will prevent any opportunity for strengthening. Teresa is expected to become a remnant low later today or this evening and dissipate on Sunday. The global models are in good agreement with this scenario. Teresa has moved little during the past 12 hours, so a stationary motion is currently indicated for this advisory. However, a motion toward the northeast should begin within the next few hours and continue through dissipation as the cyclone moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. The track forecast was adjusted a little to the east of the previous advisory, and is in agreement with the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 34.3N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 35.4N 64.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 37.2N 62.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven
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Subtropical Depression Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-25 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 546 WTNT24 KNHC 251444 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.0W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.0W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 35.4N 64.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.2N 62.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 65.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN
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