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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 33
2021-09-30 22:57:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 302057 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Sam remains a formidable hurricane, with a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite imagery. The 25 n mi wide eye is surrounded by a fairly symmetric pattern of deep convective cloud tops, and the upper-level outflow pattern is very well defined. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the system and found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 133 kt, and a highest unflagged SFMR-observed surface wind of 125 kt. Based on these observations, the advisory intensity is kept at 125 kt. Measurements from the aircraft also showed that the central pressure remains quite low, near 938 mb. Sam will continue to traverse waters of high oceanic heat content for another 12-18 hours, and the shear should remain fairly low for the next few days. Therefore, some intensification could still occur overnight. In any event, the system is expected to maintain major hurricane status for the next 36-48 hours. Over the weekend, a gradual weakening trend should commence due to cooler SSTs. However, Sam will likely remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane- force winds until the end of the forecast period. By 120 hours, simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models forecast the system's cloud pattern to resemble that of an extratropical low, and this is reflected in the official forecast, which shows extratropical status at that time. The official intensity forecast remains close to the HCCA corrected consensus model solution. Center fixes continue to show a gradual increase in forward speed, and the hurricane is moving northwestward, or about 320/12 kt. During the next 24-36 hours, Sam should turn toward the north as it moves around the western periphery of a large subtropical high over the eastern and central Atlantic. Then, the cyclone is expected to move generally northeastward in the flow between the anticyclone and a trough near Atlantic Canada. There is fairly close agreement in the track models through 60 hours or so. However, there are some significant differences in the model-predicted track of Sam at higher latitudes, probably due to variations in how the system interacts with the trough in the various guidance. The NHC track forecast follows the latest model consensus, TVCN. Although the core of Sam is predicted to pass east of Bermuda early Saturday, the tropical-storm-force wind field is forecast to expand and could pass very close to the island beginning late Friday night or early Saturday. Therefore, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for that island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 23.6N 60.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 28.5N 61.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 31.3N 61.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 33.8N 60.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 35.8N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 37.4N 56.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 42.5N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 47.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 33
2021-09-30 22:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 302054 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 60.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 60.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.5N 61.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.3N 61.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.8N 60.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.8N 58.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.4N 56.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 42.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 47.5N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 60.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-30 22:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 302042 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Victor has been relatively steady in strength during the past several hours. Satellite images continue to show that the storm has a large circulation with numerous curved bands surrounding the center. However, recent microwave images indicate that the cyclone has yet to develop a well-defined inner core, which is likely why the system has not strengthened much despite the favorable environmental conditions. The Dvorak classifications are again unchanged and range from 35 to 45 kt, and on this basis, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Victor is still moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 12 kt. The storm is forecast to continue on that same general track for about another day as it remains on the south side of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. By late Friday, a mid- to upper-level low is expected to form over the central Atlantic, and that feature should erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend and then northward by early next week when it is forecast to move in the flow between the ridge and the low. The GFS has shifted westward this cycle and is now not far from the ECMWF track. The new NHC forecast track is nudged westward toward a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and HMON models. The standard consensus aids could be too far to the east since the latest run of the HWRF, which is a member of those models, is a significant outlier to the east. As mentioned above, although the storm has been in favorable conditions for strengthening during the past day or so, it has not taken full advantage likely due to its broad structure. The favorable environment for Victor should persist for about another 24 hours, so gradual strengthening is possible during that time period. However, by the weekend, the models show Victor moving into a region of moderate to strong southwesterly shear and a progressively drier airmass. These negative factors for the storm along with slightly cooler SSTs should cause Victor to lose strength this weekend and early next week. In fact, some of the models suggest that Victor could dissipate by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is again a little lower than the previous one, trending toward the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 9.9N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 10.6N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 11.6N 33.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 12.9N 34.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 14.5N 36.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 18.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 23.6N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 28.0N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-30 22:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 302036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 30.0W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 30.0W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 29.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.6N 31.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 33.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.9N 34.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.5N 36.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.4N 38.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.9N 40.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 23.6N 42.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N 42.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 30.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 32
2021-09-30 16:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 301455 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Sam continues to look quite impressive on satellite images, with a 20-25 n mi wide eye surrounded by very deep convection. The system's convective banding features and upper-level anticyclonic outflow also remain well-defined, with particularly strong outflow to the northwest and north. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have not changed significantly since earlier this morning, so the advisory intensity will remain at 125 kt. Interestingly, aircraft observations show that Sam has been a little stronger than indicated by satellite-derived intensity estimates, which underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance of tropical cyclones. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane later today. Sam should continue to move over waters of high oceanic heat content and within a low-shear atmospheric environment for the next 24 hours or so. Thus, it could still strengthen a little today and tonight. By 48 hours, decreasing SSTs and increasing shear should lead to a gradual weakening trend. Around day 5, global model fields suggest that Sam will be merging with a baroclinic zone and transition into a large and powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model prediction. The hurricane is moving a little faster toward the northwest, or at about 320/11 kt. During the next couple of days, a gradual turn toward the north is likely as Sam rounds the western end of a large subtropical anticyclone over the eastern and central Atlantic. Thereafter, Sam is forecast to move generally northeastward in the flow between the anticyclone and a trough near Atlantic Canada. The NHC forecast is very similar to a consensus of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF predictions, with a little bit of smoothing around days 3-4. Although the core of Sam is forecast to pass east of Bermuda early Saturday, the tropical-storm-force wind field is forecast to expand and could pass very close to the island beginning late Friday night or early Saturday. Therefore, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 22.6N 60.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 24.4N 60.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 27.2N 61.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 30.2N 61.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 32.7N 60.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 34.9N 59.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 36.9N 57.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 40.0N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 44.5N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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