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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-09-25 16:41:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 251441 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Sam has continued to intensify this morning and now has a complete ring of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70 degrees C surrounding a mostly clear, small eye. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 102 kt, while the combined objective Dvorak intensity estimates from the UW-CIMSS SATCON and ADT is 110 kt. Based on this data, the initial intensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory, making Sam a major hurricane. The cyclone remains compact, with hurricane-force winds extending only 20 n mi from the center. The hurricane wobbled to the west over the past few hours. However, the 12-hour motion is west-northwest at 9 kt. There are no changes to the forecast track reasoning. The ridge the north of Sam responsible for its current motion is forecast to shift to the east in a couple of days as a deep-layer trough establishes itself over the western Atlantic. Sam is forecast to turn northwestward around the southwestern periphery of the ridge in about 48 h, and gradually increase its forward speed thereafter. The model guidance continues to be in very good agreement with this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast is unchanged from the previous one. It should be noted that the westernmost guidance continues to be the ECMWF ensemble mean, whose members have had a low bias in the intensity of Sam, which is likely contributing to the westward track bias. Based on the NHC forecast, and all of the other guidance, Sam is expected to still be well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through day 5. Environmental conditions support further strengthening in the short term, and Sam is expected to become a category 4 hurricane by Sunday. In a few days, some southwesterly shear is forecast to develop as the cyclone begins to round the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Although this should cause Sam to weaken, it is still expected to remain a powerful hurricane throughout the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one, which remains slightly above the various consensus solutions through 72 h, and then closely follows the consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 12.9N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 13.3N 48.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 14.3N 50.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 15.0N 51.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 15.8N 53.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 16.6N 54.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 18.4N 56.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.7N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-09-25 16:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 251440 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 47.6W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 47.6W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.3N 48.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.3N 50.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 51.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.8N 53.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.6N 54.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 56.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.7N 59.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 47.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-25 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250835 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 65.5W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 65.5W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 65.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.4N 65.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 65.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-25 10:34:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250834 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Teresa is poorly organized and it likely won't be a subtropical cyclone for much longer. The cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds and a band of showers and thunderstorms that is located more than 250 n mi northeast of the center. This patch of convection has been detaching from the low-level circulation and it appears to be more involved with an upper-level low to the east of Teresa. ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C caught the circulation several hours ago, and showed winds of 25-30 kt near it. However, that instrument did not sample the area of convection well northeast of the center, where the winds could be a little stronger. Given the degraded structure of the system, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt. Now that the upper-level low has pulled away from the subtropical storm, west-southwesterly shear is increasing across the circulation and that should prevent convective organization and any opportunity for strengthening. Due to the strong shear and dry air entrainment, Teresa is likely to become a remnant low later today or tonight and dissipate on Sunday. Teresa is moving slowly west-northwestward at 5 kt. A turn to the north is expected later today, followed by a northeast motion as the cyclone moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 34.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 35.4N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-09-25 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 089 WTNT23 KNHC 250832 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 46.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 46.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 46.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.1N 48.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.5N 49.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.0N 50.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.7N 51.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.4N 52.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.3N 53.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N 59.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 46.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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