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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-10-01 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 012039 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 34.3W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 34.3W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.7N 35.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.9N 37.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.6N 39.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 40.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 34.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 36
2021-10-01 16:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 011452 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 Sam remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale over the subtropical central Atlantic. Satellite images show that the hurricane still has a circular and quite distinct eye and closed eyewall. However, an 0827 UTC SSMIS pass indicated that a dry slot was present on the eastern side of the circulation between the eyewall and rainbands. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 102-115 kt. However, Air Force reconnaissance data from earlier this morning showed that the winds were much higher, and in fact, the Dvorak estimates have had a low bias compared to the Hurricane Hunter data for the past 24-36 hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 130 kt for now. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Sam this afternoon. An ASCAT-A pass from around 12Z indicated that Sam's tropical-storm-force wind radii have expanded, and the initial wind radii were adjusted based on that data. In addition, the eye of Sam passed about 60 n mi east of NOAA buoy 41049 earlier this morning. The buoy reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb, maximum winds of around 45 kt, gusts to 62 kt, and maximum seas of about 22 ft. The major hurricane has turned to the north and is now moving faster. The latest initial motion estimate is 355/18 kt. The large-scale pattern consists of a deep-layer ridge to the northeast of Sam and a large low pressure system centered over Atlantic Canada. The steering flow between these features should cause Sam to move northeastward at a sightly slower pace this weekend. By early next week, the deep-layer low is expected to retreat northward, which should cause Sam to turn a little more to the right. The models are in fairly good agreement, but there are some notable speed differences with the UKMET model being a fast outlier. The new NHC track forecast is slightly to the right of the previous one at 60 and 72 h, but is otherwise very similar. This forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Sam is expected to slowly weaken during the next several days as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into an environment of stronger shear. The hurricane will likely begin extratropical transition in a couple of days when it crosses the 26 degree C isotherm, and this transition is expected to be completed by 96 hours. All of the model guidance shows steady weakening through the forecast period, and so does the NHC forecast. This prediction is close to the IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA models in the short term and near the GFS model during the extratropical portion of the forecast. Even though Sam is likely to weaken, it is still expected to be a significant storm over the next several days. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 28.4N 61.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 30.7N 61.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 33.4N 60.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 35.6N 58.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 37.2N 56.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 38.7N 52.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 41.9N 48.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 49.0N 42.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1200Z 51.0N 34.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-10-01 16:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 011452 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 Since the last advisory, Victor's deep convection has become limited to the northern portion of its circulation. Convective outflow is limited to the south, which indicates that the changes in the structure of the tropical storm are due at least in part to southerly wind shear. Microwave and ASCAT data between 0800 and 1200 UTC also indicate that the center of Victor has become elongated, and may be trying to reform to the north, closer to the convection. Even with that reformation, an 1128 ASCAT-B overpass revealed that the center of Victor is located substantially south of previous estimates, which has necessitated a significant change to the track forecast. With the new position, the initial motion estimate is now 295/13 kt. The tropical storm is still generally expected to turn northwestward over the weekend and then continue on that heading through early next week, steered by the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. Nearly all of the dynamical models are showing this turn occuring slightly later than earlier forecasts, which results in a track well to the west of the previous NHC forecast. Combined with the updated analysis of Victor's position, the new NHC forecast has been shifted over 100 n mi to the southwest by day 4. However, this is still on the far east side of the guidance envelope so additional changes to the track forecast might be needed this afternoon. The aforementioned ASCAT data showed peak winds near 50 kt, which supports an intensity of 55 kt, assuming a little undersampling due to the resolution of the instrument. The intensity analysis is also supported by the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. Despite the large changes to the track forecast, no change of note was made to the intensity forecast. Increasing shear and a dry surrounding environment should cause Victor to weaken during the next few days. Some models even indicate it could dissipate before the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is based on the intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 11.5N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 12.0N 34.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 13.1N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 14.7N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.6N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 18.7N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.6N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 23.6N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 27.1N 46.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 36
2021-10-01 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 011450 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 61.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 61.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.7N 61.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.4N 60.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.6N 58.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.2N 56.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.7N 52.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.9N 48.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 49.0N 42.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 51.0N 34.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 61.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/NEPAUL
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-10-01 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011450 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 33.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 33.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 33.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.0N 34.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.1N 36.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.7N 38.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.6N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.7N 42.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.6N 43.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.6N 46.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 27.1N 46.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 33.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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