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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-09-22 16:41:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 221441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 66.9W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 66.9W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 67.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.3N 67.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.2N 66.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.1N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.3N 65.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 66.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Tags: number peter advisory tropical

Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-09-22 16:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221438 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds with no significant convection, with an earlier burst dissipating during the last few hours. Recently received scatterometer data show 25-30 kt winds in the northeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The cyclone remains in an environment of northwesterly shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level air has been entraining into the circulation. Since the shear is expected to increase during the next 2-3 days, the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken during this time. However, confidence in the timing of when the system will stop producing organized convection is still low. The new intensity forecast calls for Rose to degenerate into a remnant low between 60-72 h, but it is possible this could happen earlier. The initial motion is now 305/8 kt. The depression is expected to turn northward in 24-36 hours as it moves on the west side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. By 48-60 h, a turn to the northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the southeast side of a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic. Based on the initial position and motion, the first 36 h of the forecast track are shifted a little to the west of the previous track. After that time, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 23.6N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 24.6N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 26.1N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 28.8N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 29.4N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 29.9N 34.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 31.5N 30.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion rose tropical

Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-09-22 16:38:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 221437 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 39.2W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 39.2W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.6N 40.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.1N 41.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 39.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.4N 37.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.9N 34.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 31.5N 30.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number rose advisory tropical

Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-09-22 10:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220840 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Peter is a disorganized tropical depression. The low-level center is fully exposed and currently located a couple of hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Most of the associated thunderstorm activity remains displaced well east of the center due to about 30 kt of westerly shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a 0206 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed a swath of 25-30 kt winds about 60 n mi north of the center. The ASCAT data also showed that the circulation has become quite elongated. Since the hostile conditions of strong westerly shear and dry air entrainment are not expected to let up, a continued gradual decay of Peter is forecast. The system is still predicted to become a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipate in a few days, but both of these could occur sooner. The depression is moving northwestward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 310/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by tonight and then northeastward by the end of the week as the system moves in the flow on the east side of a deep-layer trough. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and close to an average of the GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Thursday morning across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.5N 66.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.2N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 23.2N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 24.1N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 25.1N 65.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1800Z 26.5N 64.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion peter tropical

Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 15

2021-09-22 10:34:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220834 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 66.1W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 66.1W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 65.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 66.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.1N 65.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 66.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number peter advisory tropical

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