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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 35

2020-09-21 04:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 532 WTNT25 KNHC 210250 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO CANSO NOVA SCOTIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 63.6W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 360SE 360SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 63.6W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 63.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 30.9N 63.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. 34 KT...390NE 310SE 300SW 310NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.3N 64.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 280SE 280SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 48.6N 59.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 57.4N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 63.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-09-21 04:47:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210247 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 Satellite and radar imagery shows that the deep convection associated with Beta has decreased considerably since this afternoon. This appears to be the result of dry air entrainment and vertical wind shear. Despite the recent decrease in convective organization, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found SFMR winds of around 45 kt, and there have been a couple of ship observations this evening of winds of 45-50 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity of 50 kt has been maintained. Data from the most recent center dropwindsonde indicate that the pressure is around 995 mb. Beta is forecast to remain within an area of moderate vertical wind shear, and that along with intrusions of dry air are likely to prevent Beta from strengthening before it nears the Texas coast. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength before landfall in about 24 hours. Gradual weakening should occur after the center moves over land, but the weakening rate may be slower-than-normal as a portion of the circulation will remain offshore. In 2-3 days, the system is expected to weaken to a tropical depression, and it should become a remnant low by 96 h as it move farther inland over the lower Mississippi Valley. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS statistical model. Beta has jogged westward this evening, but the longer-term motion estimate is 290/5 kt. There is once again no change the previous track forecast philosophy. The tropical storm is located between a mid-level ridge over Florida and another ridge over the Southern Plains. Beta should move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Texas during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the ridge over the Plains should weaken allowing the ridge to the east to steer Beta northward, and then northeastward near the Upper-Texas coast by mid-week. With the recent westward jog, the new track forecast has been nudged slightly south of the previous track through 24 hours, but is slightly east of the previous advisory thereafter to be closer to the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley where flash, urban, and river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area in Louisiana. These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast overnight and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 27.6N 94.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 28.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 28.5N 96.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 28.8N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/0000Z 29.1N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 30.1N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0000Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-09-21 04:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210245 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY... GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 94.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......170NE 30SE 40SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 94.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 94.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.0N 95.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 30SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.5N 96.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.8N 96.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.1N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.1N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 31.9N 91.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 94.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Remnants of Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-09-21 04:33:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210233 TCDAT3 Remnants Of Wilfred Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 Northwesterly vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on Wilfred. Recent infrared satellite imagery along with scatterometer data indicate that Wilfred's low-level circulation has become an open trough of low pressure. Therefore, Wilfred is no longer a tropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The remaining deep convection has a linear shape and appears to be the result of the system interacting with an upper-level trough to its northwest. The scatterometer data revealed peak winds of close to 30 kt to the north of the trough axis, and that is the basis for the initial intensity. The system is moving generally westward at about 15 kt. The trough should continue to move westward at a slightly slower forward speed until it weakens and dissipates within a few days. This is the last NHC advisory on Wilfred. Additional information on the remnants of this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 15.9N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Remnants of Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-09-21 04:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210232 TCMAT3 REMNANTS OF WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 47.4W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 47.4W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 46.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 47.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON WILFRED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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