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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 23
2021-09-06 10:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 060846 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 52.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 55 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 52.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 52.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 53.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 55NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 36.7N 61.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 45.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 52.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-09-06 04:52:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060252 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 A series of afternoon and evening passive microwave imagery indicate that Larry has evolved from an earlier stable eyewall structure to one with concentric eyewalls. The most recent microwave pass, a 2201 UTC SSMIS overpass, showed that Larry is likely in the latter stages of this most recent eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), with a new outer eyewall radius of nearly 50 nautical miles. However, geostationary satellite imagery still shows quite a bit of inner eyewall convection and it may take a while longer before this ERC is complete. A recent ASCAT-A pass at 2339 UTC also indicated that Larry's inner-core wind field had expanded further, likely related to this recent ERC. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB remain unchanged from this afternoon, and the initial intensity remains 110 kt this advisory. A NOAA P-3 aircraft will be conducting a research mission into the Larry tomorrow and should provide some helpful in-situ measurements to verify the hurricane's intensity. Larry's motion to the northwest continues to gradually slow down, with the latest estimated motion at 310/10 kt. The forecast track reasoning remains the same. Larry should maintain its northwestward heading for the next 2-3 days as it remains steered around the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the hurricane's northeast. After 72 hours, Larry will be reaching the western extent of this ridge while an amplifying mid-latitude trough will be approaching from the northeastern United States. The combination of these features should help Larry recurve, first to the north, and then northeast with accelerating forward motion by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement, and very few changes were made to the track forecast this cycle, staying close to the consensus aids HCCA and TVCA. The intensity forecast with Larry is somewhat tricky. Larry's wind field continues to grow, following the multiple ERCs that have occurred over the past few days. At the same time, Larry's forward motion has gradually been slowing down, with the latest estimate down to 10 kts. The combination of Larry's widening wind field with its slower forward motion opens the storm up to possible upwelling of cooler ocean waters near its inner-core. In fact, a drifting buoy that Larry moved over in the past 24 hours showed a significant drop in sea-surface temperatures from 27.5 C to less than 26 C. These in-situ measurements are helpful, because they are lower than the SHIPS-derived sea-surface temperature values and more consistent with the upwelling recently forecast by the HWRF model. Adding to the forecast complexity is the ongoing ERC which could be ending over the next 6-12 hours. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one for the first 24 hours, showing little change in intensity after ERC completion. Thereafter, while dynamical conditions near Larry are expected to become more favorable (lower vertical wind shear), the anticipated upwelling from Larry's large wind field as the storm moves slowly northwestward is forecast to result in gradual decay. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one after 48 hours, following the latest HCCA consensus aid closely. However, Larry's wind field is also forecast to expand over this time period, making the cyclone a prolific swell and surf producer. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry are already affecting the Lesser Antilles and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.0N 51.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.2N 54.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 24.6N 55.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 26.0N 56.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 27.6N 58.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 29.4N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 34.4N 61.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 42.9N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 22
2021-09-06 04:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 060245 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 51.4W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 51.4W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 51.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N 54.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 55.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.0N 56.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.6N 58.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.4N 59.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 34.4N 61.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 42.9N 55.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 51.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-09-05 22:54:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052054 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 The overall structure of Larry has changed little today. A large eye remains surrounded by a cold ring of convection with cloud tops of -75 to -80 C. The only notable difference between now and several hours ago has been that some cloud cover has become evident within the eye. A blend of the latest T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB suggest that the initial intensity remains 110 kt. Larry is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. There has been no change to the forecast track reasoning, nor has there been any notable change to the NHC forecast track from the previous advisory, due to the forecast models remaining in excellent agreement. A northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next few days to the southwest of the ridge. In a few days, the hurricane is forecast to reach the western periphery of this ridge, resulting in the cyclone beginning gradual recurvature to the north then northeast into the mid-latitude westerlies. Other than some minor fluctuations in intensity due to internal influences, the stable, annular-like structure of Larry should allow for it to remain a major hurricane for the next couple of days, despite being surrounded by some mid-level dry air. By day 4, the cyclone is forecast to move over waters of progressively decreasing oceanic heat content, which should induce gradual weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA and DSHP, which have been two of the best performing models for Larry's intensity thus far. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several days, likely as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.5N 50.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.6N 51.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 22.7N 53.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 32.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 39.8N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-09-05 22:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 052047 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 50.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 150SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 50.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 51.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 53.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 32.8N 61.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 39.8N 58.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 50.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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