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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-09-04 04:37:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 078 WTNT42 KNHC 040237 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 Larry has had a distinct but slightly ragged 15 n mi wide eye during the past few hours, while convective cloud tops within the eyewall have been gradually cooling. Intensity estimates have responded, somewhat significantly, to the improved structure, and TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes at 0000 UTC were T5.5/102 kt and T5.0/90 kt, respectively. In addition, objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates are near 105 kt. Larry has become a major hurricane, the third of the Atlantic season, with estimated 100-kt sustained winds. The hurricane is located due south of a mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic, and continues to move toward the west-northwest (285/14 kt). Larry is generally expected to move around the southwestern periphery of the high, turning northwestward at a slower speed by Sunday and then north-northwestward by Wednesday as a deep-layer trough moves eastward across the eastern United States. There is fairly high confidence in the track forecast, with model guidance showing a below- to near-normal amount of spread through day 5. The new NHC track forecast is right along the forecast from the previous advisory through day 3, and then nudged slightly westward on days 4 and 5. It should be noted that a few of the consensus aids, including HCCA, are still a little bit west of the official forecast at day 5, which might portend additional westward nudges in future advisories. By strict definition, Larry hasn't quite rapidly intensified since this time yesterday, but it has still strengthened quickly over waters that are considered only marginally warm (26-27 degrees Celsius). For the next couple of days, low shear, higher oceanic heat content, and a more unstable environment should favor additional intensification. However, there are still indications that Larry could run into an environment of higher shear and less upper-level divergence in 2-3 days as it approaches a mid-/upper-level trough currently located north and northeast of the Leeward Islands. In addition, internal processes within the hurricane's core itself, such as eyewall replacement cycles, could affect the intensity. In light of all these factors, the NHC intensity forecast relies on persistence to show additional strengthening during the next 36 hours, and then holds Larry steady through 60 hours at an intensity that is near the upper end of the guidance. Very gradual weakening is anticipated on days 3 through 5 while Larry heads in the direction of higher latitudes, yet the hurricane is forecast to remain at major hurricane intensity for the entire 5-day forecast period. Significant ocean swells generated by Larry's growing wind field are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and then spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United States by midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 15.5N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.2N 45.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 18.7N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 20.0N 51.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 21.2N 53.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 22.4N 55.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 25.4N 58.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 29.5N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-09-04 04:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040236 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 43.3W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 43.3W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 42.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 45.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 49.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 51.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.2N 53.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.4N 55.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.4N 58.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 29.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 43.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 13

2021-09-03 22:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 032054 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 Over the course of the day, Larry's appearance has become more impressive. The eye has been gradually becoming better defined on visible satellite imagery as the center cloud top temperature has been warming on the infrared channel. Several microwave passes have been received since the last advisory. The most recent pass at 1900 UTC suggested the eye and surrounding eyewall convection is becoming better defined, though still weaker on the east side. 1800 UTC subjective Dvorak classifications were still both CI 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB. However, the objective satellite estimates have been rising quickly, with the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate up to 84 kt. Thus, the NHC advisory intensity has been raised to 85 kt for this advisory, making Larry a category 2 hurricane. Larry's motion has remained fairly steady to the west-northwest throughout the day, at 285/14 kt. The latest track reasoning remains unchanged, with Larry being steered to the west-northwest around the southern periphery of an expansive mid-level ridge centered north of the hurricane. This ridge axis will gradually become oriented to the northeast of Larry with time, allowing the tropical cyclone to gradually gain more latitude. Because the ridge is quite large, even as its axis shifts eastward, a portion of the ridge will still remain to the north of the storm. The end result is that Larry should only slowly gain a more poleward component of motion as the system also gradually slows down. While the track guidance spread remains small for the first 48-60 hours of the forecast, a bit more longitudinal spread becomes apparent thereafter, which appears related to how much mid-level ridging remains poleward of the cyclone. The latest 12z ECMWF run has a distinctly stronger ridge, oriented more poleward in comparison to the 12z GFS run. Thus, it is not surprising to see that the ECMWF track is a bit further west and slower than the GFS. The latest NHC track forecast this cycle was also adjusted a bit slower, following the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. However, it is interesting to note the latest 12z ECMWF ensembles are even slower than this track forecast, and future slower adjustments may be needed if these track solutions verify. It remains too soon to determine what impacts Larry may pose to the Island of Bermuda, but interests there should monitor updates in the forecast in the subsequent days. With the recent improvement in Larry's structure on satellite imagery, the hurricane may be starting another rapid intensification (RI) cycle, as suggested by the high RI probabilities given in the DTOPS guidance. However, the earlier microwave data also suggested that there were a lot of concentric bands outside of the primary eyewall, and it is not out of the question that another eyewall replacement cycle could begin in the next 24-36 hours. Instead of attempting to forecast these often stochastic processes, the latest NHC intensity forecast will instead show a healthy rate of deepening over the next several days, now taking Larry to 120 kt in 48 hours. Afterwards, there still remain questions as to how much the vertical wind shear will increase over Larry, with the ECMWF-SHIPS indicating higher shear that could affect Larry's inner-core structure, while the GFS-SHIPS showing much lower shear. Warmer sea-surface temperatures also await the hurricane in the 60-96 hour period. Due to these competing factors, the intensity forecast during this period will only show very gradual weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance, but still remains lower than the higher HAFS-B and COAMPS-TC models. It should be noted that the majority of the guidance also shows Larry becoming a very large hurricane, with a significant expansion of the 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii also forecast. Significant ocean swells generated by the increasingly large wind field of Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions on those islands early next week. Large swells are likely to spread to areas surrounding the western Atlantic later in the week as well. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 15.0N 42.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 15.8N 44.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 18.1N 48.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 19.4N 50.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 20.7N 52.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 54.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 28.7N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 13

2021-09-03 22:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 381 WTNT22 KNHC 032041 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.8N 44.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.4N 50.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 52.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.9N 54.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.7N 60.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 42.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-09-03 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 553 WTNT22 KNHC 031447 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.4N 42.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.6N 47.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.2N 51.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N 53.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.2N 56.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.8N 60.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 40.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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