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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-08 22:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082047 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Olaf's appearance has remained steady today and the storm is characterized by a large curved band that encompasses much of the circulation. There is good outflow in all quadrants, indicative of a low-shear environment. An earlier ASCAT pass sampled peak winds of 37 kt, and this data along with a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB indicate that the initial intensity is around 40 kt. The storm is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a moist environment for the next 36 hours. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely during that time period. In a couple of days, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters, and into a drier and a much more stable atmospheric environment. This should result in rapid weakening, and Olaf is expected to become a remnant low this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and continues to be in good agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Although the NHC forecast does not explicitly show Olaf becoming a hurricane, this could still occur Thursday or Thursday night. Olaf continues to move slowly northwestward, or 325/5 kt. A mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico should help maintain this heading for a couple of days with a gradual increase in forward speed. By Friday night, Olaf is expected to turn west-northwestward as it weakens, and by Saturday a westward motion is forecast when the shallow cyclone is steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The overall model guidance shifted slightly to the east through 48 hours, and thus the NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction for that time frame. Because of this track shift, probabilities of tropical storm and hurricane conditions have increased for southern portions of Baja California Sur. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of this area. After 48 h, the guidance has shifted a little to the south, and the NHC forecast was tweaked in that direction as well. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes to the southwest of the southern portion of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible across that area beginning late Thursday. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Olaf are possible across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 19.4N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 20.2N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 21.2N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 23.2N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 23.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.1N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-08 22:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 082046 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.2N 108.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.5N 114.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.1N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 107.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 33
2021-09-08 22:45:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 082045 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.2W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.2W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 160SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 54.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 190SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 62.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...MERGED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 59.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 32
2021-09-08 16:53:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 567 WTNT42 KNHC 081453 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 Larry's eye has been only faintly apparent on recent satellite imagery, but the hurricane is still maintaining a fair amount of deep convection near/around the center. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and observations found that the central pressure has risen only slightly since yesterday, with peak flight level winds of 118 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were only 75 kt, indicating that the strong winds aloft are not very effectively being transported to the surface. Given this, along with the slightly-degraded appearance of the system, the current intensity is reduced to 95 kt, which is just a bit above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The hurricane is moving northwestward at a slightly faster clip, or 320/11 kt. Over the next 36 to 48 hours, Larry is expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure area and pass to the east of Bermuda. Thereafter, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough moving through the northeastern United States and become embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This will take Larry near or over southeastern Newfoundland in 60-66 hours and then over the far North Atlantic. The official forecast track has not changed significantly from those in the previous few advisories, and remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Larry should remain in an environment of low vertical shear and warm surface waters for the next 36-48 hours. However, the oceanic heat content beneath the hurricane should be gradually decreasing during the next few days. Only slow weakening is forecast, similar to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. In about 72 hours, the global models indicate that Larry will become embedded within a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast shows it as an extratropical cyclone by that time. In 5 days or less, the system is expected to merge with another large cyclone at high latitudes. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Bermuda. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 27.7N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 29.1N 59.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 34.7N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 44.4N 55.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 50.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 61.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z...MERGED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 32
2021-09-08 16:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 081450 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 58.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 58.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 57.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.1N 59.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.7N 61.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.4N 55.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 50.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 190SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 61.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...MERGED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 58.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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