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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 28
2021-09-07 16:58:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 071458 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 55.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 55.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.8N 61.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.9N 61.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 50.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 55.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-09-07 10:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070848 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 Larry has maintained a very warm, pronounced eye with a diameter of around 45 to 50 n mi overnight. However, recent infrared satellite imagery and earlier microwave data show some weaknesses in the western eyewall of the hurricane, potentially signaling the entrainment of some drier air into its inner core. This could be the result of some moderate westerly shear impinging on the system. The initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt for this advisory, based on a 0520 UTC SATCON estimate of 103 kt and T5.5/102 kt current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter reconnaissance flight is scheduled to investigate Larry later this morning, which should provide more insight into the hurricane's structure and intensity. Larry is moving toward the northwest at 315/9 kt, as the hurricane is being steered around a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 h or so. By Thursday, the hurricane is forecast to turn northward within the flow between the ridge and an approaching deep-layer trough that will be crossing the northeastern United States. As the trough moves over the western Atlantic, Larry should accelerate northeastward deeper into the mid-latitudes on Friday and Saturday, passing near or over portions of Atlantic Canada. The latest NHC track forecast lies near the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and no significant adjustments were made from the previous forecast. Larry is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large hurricane. Given the expansive size of its wind field, a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for the island later today. Although the warm sea-surface temperatures and diminishing vertical wind shear along Larry's forecast track appear favorable during the next couple of days, it may not be able to take advantage of these conditions due to its large size, as well as the potential for another eyewall replacement cycle. As previously noted, Larry's broad wind field and moderate forward speed could also result in some upwelling of cooler waters near its inner core. There remains a split in the intensity guidance, with the statistical-dynamical guidance notably higher than the coupled atmosphere-ocean models. The official NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening of Larry during the next several days. Nonetheless, Larry will remain a forceful hurricane that continues to produce significant swell with far-reaching impacts through the week. After 72 h, Larry should begin its extratropical transition, and the official forecast shows Larry becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next couple of days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by Thursday. Tropical storm watches could be needed for the island later today, and interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 23.8N 55.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 28.4N 59.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 37.1N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 47.7N 52.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 57.0N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-09-07 10:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070844 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LARRY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 55.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 360SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 55.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.4N 59.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.1N 61.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 47.7N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 57.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 55.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-09-07 04:53:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 409 WTNT42 KNHC 070253 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 Larry has changed little in geostationary satellite imagery since the NOAA P-3 aircraft left the storm after 2130 UTC. Data from the mission showed that the hurricane possessed a very large wind field, and there were occasional hints in the flight-level wind data of an outer wind maxima trying to develop. The most recent passive microwave imagery from a 2148 UTC SSMIS pass showed some evidence of secondary bands forming away from the primary eyewall, though the inner eye remains large and distinct. Whether or not this will be the start of another eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) remains to be seen. For now, both the subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged from earlier today, so Larry's intensity has been maintained at 110 kt for this advisory. The hurricane continues to move to the northwest at 325/9 kt, guided along the southwestern periphery of a prominent subtropical ridge. Larry will reach the westward extent of this ridge in 60-72 hours as a large deep-layer trough approaches from the northeastern United States. The latest guidance now shows this trough capturing Larry towards the end of the forecast period, resulting in an abrupt acceleration to the northeast as the hurricane is steered by the strong westerly flow ahead of the mid-latitude trough. The track guidance continues to be in great agreement with Larry's forecast track, and only a few minor adjustments were needed to the most recent forecast, staying near the middle of the track guidance envelope. This latest forecast continues to show Larry passing to the east of Bermuda on Thursday. However, given Larry's large size, some impacts could still be felt even if the center passes well east, and a tropical storm watch could be needed for the island as soon as tomorrow morning. The intensity forecast for Larry over the next few days is likely to be controlled by changes to its inner-core structure. If another ERC begins soon, this could result in a short-term drop off in maximum sustained winds as the hurricane's wind field expands. As mentioned last night, the broadening wind field, in combination with Larry's slow motion currently at 9 kt, could also result in more ocean upwelling closer to Larry's inner core. While the latest SHIPS guidance depicts warm sea-surface temperatures along the track of Larry over the next 2-3 days, the oceanic heat content in this part of the Atlantic basin is not very high. This might explain why the atmosphere-ocean coupled models (COAMPS-TC, HWRF, HAFS-B) show more significant weakening with a gradually decaying inner-core over cooler upwelled waters. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, giving a bit more weight to the dynamically coupled hurricane models versus the statistical-dynamical guidance. However, even this latest forecast is higher than the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). Regardless of these intensity details, Larry is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane over the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda tonight and tomorrow. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next few days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of this week. Interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next few days, and tropical storm watches could be needed for the island as soon as tomorrow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 23.1N 54.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 24.1N 55.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 44.0N 55.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 55.5N 43.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-09-07 04:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070246 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LARRY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 54.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 54.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 54.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 55.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 44.0N 55.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 55.5N 43.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 54.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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