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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-09-09 16:50:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 091450 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.3W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.3W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.2N 109.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.3N 110.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.1N 113.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.8N 114.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 108.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-09-09 10:55:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090855 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Olaf's convective canopy has been expanding somewhat and become a little more circular since last evening with clouds tops as cold as -80 degrees Celsius. Dvorak estimates have bounced up to T3.5 from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, and Olaf's maximum winds are therefore now estimated to be 55 kt. Recent scatterometer data also indicated that the tropical-storm-force wind field is a little bigger than previously estimated. Also with the help of the scatterometer data, Olaf's center appears to have tracked a bit to the east, and the initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt. This has been the recent trend over the past day or so, with the motion having a more northward component than anticipated--but not surprising given what previous GFS model runs have been suggesting. A strong mid-level high over the western United States is expected to eventually force Olaf toward the northwest and then west, but probably not soon enough to avoid impacts on the southern Baja California peninsula. Mostly due to the adjusted initial position, the track models--and the NHC official forecast--have again shifted closer to the southern tip of the peninsula, with a closest approach in about 24 hours. This updated forecast is very close to the HCCA consensus aid and would be close enough for the core of the storm to at least graze land. It's also concerning that the GFS, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models are still to the right of the official forecast and the other models and show Olaf's center potentially moving over the southern tip of the peninsula in about 24 hours. Olaf should finally begin to move westward away from the peninsula in about 48 hours. Although satellite images and model analyses suggest that some moderate westerly shear is undercutting the outflow layer, Olaf has been able to strengthen nonetheless. If Olaf's center does not move over the Baja California peninsula, the storm will have the opportunity to strengthen for another 24-36 hours while ocean waters are warm and deep-layer shear is low. Therefore, the new NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance envelope and shows Olaf becoming a hurricane later today. Further strengthening beyond what's shown in the official forecast is possible, with rapid intensification indices now close to a 50 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours. By 48 hours, colder waters should cause Olaf's convection to decrease, and global models suggest it could degenerate to a convection-less post-tropical low by day 3. The updated track and intensity forecasts have necessitated the issuance of a Hurricane Warning by the government of Mexico for southern portions of Baja California Sur, and an extension of Tropical Storm Warnings northward along both east and west coasts of the peninsula. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane later today and then pass very near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, and preparations should therefore be rushed to completion this morning. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are possible across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 20.5N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 21.4N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 22.6N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 23.5N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 23.7N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 23.1N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z 21.3N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 7

2021-09-09 10:53:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 966 WTPZ25 KNHC 090853 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO AND NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 111.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.1N 115.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 108.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 35

2021-09-09 10:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 652 WTNT42 KNHC 090846 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 This morning's conventional satellite presentation appears to indicate a more banding eye feature rather than a previously noted irregular-type eye. A timely Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) image and an AMSR2 lower frequency pass, however, clearly shows the majority of the eyewall intact. The primary curved band wrapping around the west semicircle consists of -78 Celsius cloud tops. The western portion of the eyewall is now discernible on the Bermuda Weather Service Radar. The initial intensity is held at possibly generous 85 kt for this advisory and is based on a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. A 53rd Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this morning and will provide new information on Larry's intensity. The 0000 UTC GFS global model sounding revealed 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly effective shear impinging on the western half of the cyclone while the UW-CIMSS shear analysis showed 20-25 kt of bulk shear in the same area. This, along with a significantly higher statically stable surrounding environment (about 55 percent RH), has disrupted the inner core and more than likely created a SW to NW tilt with height. Larry is expected to change little in strength during the next 12 to 24 hours, then gradually weaken as the cyclone traverses sharply decreasing cooler water north of the gulf stream while the southwesterly shear increases significantly. The dynamic forcing, however, associated with a mid-latitude major shortwave trough near Atlantic Canada should aid in maintaining Larry as a hurricane while it passes near or over Newfoundland. Afterwards, Larry is expected to transition into a large extratropical cyclone, as indicated by the FSU Cyclone Phase Diagram. By early next week, Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/14 kt. The track philosophy remains unchanged. Larry is expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system anchored over the central Atlantic. The hurricane should make its closest approach to the east of Bermuda later today while slowly turning north-northwestward and northward. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, Larry should accelerate generally northeastward in response to the aforementioned mid-latitude trough and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit to the left of the previous advisory and is close to the various multi-model consensus aids. The wind radii were decreased slightly in all quadrants based on earlier METOP A and B scatterometer passes. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda later today, Tropical storm conditions are expected today, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for southeastern Newfoundland. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.9N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 32.9N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 36.7N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 41.8N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 47.9N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 54.1N 45.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z 59.2N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-09-09 10:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090842 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of Mindy has moved inland over southern Georgia overnight. Now that more of the circulation has moved over land, the cyclone has weakened and the latest observations indicate that Mindy has become a tropical depression with an estimated intensity of 30 kt. Mindy is forecast to move over the western Atlantic by this afternoon, but strong southwesterly shear is expected to prevent re-strengthening. In fact, the shear is forecast to increase to around 35 kt by tonight, and this is likely to strip away any remaining deep convection and cause gradual weakening. Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low in about 48 hours and dissipate by day 3, but given the expected shear both of those events could occur sooner. Mindy continues to move briskly northeastward or 055/17 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Mindy should continue to move northeastward near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that will be moving across the eastern United States today. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward late tonight and Friday, Mindy should slow down and turn east-northeastward until dissipation occurs. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been modified accordingly. The new NHC track lies between the GFEX consensus aid and the GFS ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible across portions of southeastern Georgia this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.8N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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