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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-09-01 04:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010233 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Some bursts of convection have been forming within Kate's small circulation during the past several hours, but none of it has any real significant organization. In addition, the low clouds appear to be losing definition, and a very-recent ASCAT-B pass showed that the maximum winds are now only about 25 kt. It's going to be difficult for Kate to make much of a comeback, if at all. Moderate northerly shear, dry mid-level air, upper-level convergence, and an increasingly anticyclonic low-level environment are likely to cause the circulation to spin down further and make it hard for deep convection to persist. Therefore, the NHC official forecast now calls for additional weakening, with Kate likely becoming a remnant low by 36 hours (if not sooner) and dissipating by 72 hours. This scenario is closest to the GFS, HWRF, and HMON solutions. Located on the southwestern periphery of a low-level area of high pressure, Kate is moving toward the north-northwest (345/9 kt). The depression is forecast to turn toward the northwest by morning, but then recurve around the high toward the north and north-northeast in a couple of days. The NHC track forecast remains close to the consensus aids and is generally just an update from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 25.4N 51.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 26.4N 52.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 27.9N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 29.8N 53.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 31.6N 54.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1200Z 33.1N 53.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-01 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 010232 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually becoming better organized. An area of deep convection has been persisting near the center, and banding features are beginning to take shape. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 2.5/35 kt, which would support upgrading the system to a tropical storm. However, a recent ASCAT-B overpass around 2300 UTC showed maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range in the northeastern quadrant, and based on that data the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The tropical depression is moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest at 17 kt. The track forecast reasoning appears fairly straightforward. The cyclone is expected to move at a relatively fast pace to the west or west-northwest during the next couple of days as it remains on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest are expected as the system nears the southwestern side of the ridge. Although most of the models agree on the synoptic steering pattern, there is a fair amount of spread from days 3 to 5 in how soon the northwestward turn will occur. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is a little to the north of the previous one based on the more poleward initial position. Since the system is expected to be over relatively warm water and in an air mass of low wind shear and abundant moisture, steady strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The depression is likely to become a tropical storm within the next 12 hours and a hurricane in 36 to 48 hours. Beyond a few days, an increase in shear and drier air should slow the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR models. In addition, the global models all show the cyclone becoming fairly large toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast wind radii is larger than the previous one, trending toward the radii consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 12.1N 23.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 12.6N 25.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 12.8N 29.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 13.2N 32.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 13.8N 35.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 14.5N 37.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 15.4N 40.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 18.0N 44.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 47.9W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-01 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 51.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 51.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 51.1W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 52.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.9N 53.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.8N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.6N 54.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 33.1N 53.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 51.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-01 04:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 525 WTNT22 KNHC 010231 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 23.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 23.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 22.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.6N 25.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.8N 29.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.2N 32.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.8N 35.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.4N 40.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.7N 47.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 23.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-31 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021 142 WTNT42 KNHC 312035 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021 Satellite imagery, along with earlier scatterometer data, indicates that the low pressure area over the eastern tropical Atlantic has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB as well as the scatterometer data. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/14. A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north should cause the cyclone to move westward at a faster forward speed for the next 36 h or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest by the end of the period as the depression moves along the southwest side of the ridge. There is some spread in the guidance after 36-48 h, with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean showing a more northward motion while the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean show a more westward motion. The official forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is a little to the south of the other consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for intensification during the next 72 h or so as the cyclone is in a moist environment with light shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast thus calls for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 h or so and reach hurricane strength in 48-60 h. By the end of the forecast period, the forecast track takes the cyclone over slightly cooler water and into a drier air mass. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for a slower development rate. The official intensity forecast is in the middle of the intensity guidance, and it is possibly conservative given that many of the global models are showing the development of a large and powerful tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 11.2N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.6N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 12.0N 27.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 12.1N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 13.3N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 14.3N 39.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 16.5N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 47.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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