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Tropical Storm Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-09 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090246 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.0N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.2N 77.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.1N 73.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 70.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.1N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 34.3N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 84.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-09 04:37:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090237 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Olaf appears to be gradually strengthening. Deep convection has been increasing over the center, and banding features are becoming a little more pronounced. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 35 to 45 kt. Since the system appears to be better organized from the time of the ASCAT pass earlier today, the initial intensity is nudged up and set near the high end of the estimates at 45 kt. Satellite images and recent microwave data suggest that the center of Olaf is a little to the east of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 335/6 kt. Olaf is expected to move generally northwestward for another 24 to 36 hours, which should bring the system just off the coast of southern Baja California Sur during that time. There is some spread in the models on how close the storm will get to the coastline, with the GFS to the east of the official forecast and the UKMET and ECMWF to the west and farther offshore. Beyond 36 hours, Olaf is expected to be located to the south of a strong mid-level ridge and that will cause a turn to the west-northwest away from Mexico. The NHC track forecast is adjusted again to the east of the previous one in the short term and then to the south of the previous one at the longer lead times. The new track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, near the various consensus aids. Olaf is located over warm waters, and embedded in a low wind shear and fairly moist environment. These conditions should allow for additional strengthening during the next day or so. Although not explicitly forecast, Olaf could become a hurricane when it is just off the coast of southern Baja California Sur, and a hurricane watch remains in effect for the possibility of those winds occurring on land. By Friday, a combination of cooler waters and a much drier environment should cause steady weakening, and the system is likely to become a remnant low over the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN and IVDR consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes offshore of the southern portion of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible across that area beginning late Thursday. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Olaf are possible across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 20.0N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 20.8N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 21.9N 109.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 22.8N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 23.4N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 23.5N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 23.3N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 22.6N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 21.7N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-09 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090236 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.8N 108.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 109.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.8N 111.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.5N 114.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.3N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.6N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.7N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 108.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-08 22:53:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 082053 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.3N 84.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.3N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.3N 75.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 32.9N 72.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 33.4N 69.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.3N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 86.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 33
2021-09-08 22:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 741 WTNT42 KNHC 082050 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 Larry's overall organization has shown little change on satellite images this afternoon. The eye remains rather ill-defined but the hurricane continues to produce some strong convection near/around the center. Cirrus-level outflow remains quite well defined, particularly to the northwest. The current intensity estimate is held at 95 kt, which is only slightly above the latest Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this evening to provide a new intensity estimate. The hurricane continues heading a little faster toward the northwest, or at about 325/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains about the same as before. Larry should move around the western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic for the next 36 to 48 hours, passing east of Bermuda tomorrow. After that, the hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward on the east side of a deep-layer trough moving through the eastern United States, and Larry will move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in roughly 60 hours. Then, the cyclone is forecast to move over the far north Atlantic. The official forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus solution and, again, very similar to the previous NHC track. Based on the dynamical model guidance, weak to moderate vertical shear should prevail over Larry during the next couple of days. Sea surface temperatures below the cyclone begin to cool significantly after 48 hours, which should induce weakening. However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west may help the hurricane maintain some of its intensity over cooler waters, as suggested by the global models. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus and keeps Larry at hurricane strength even after extratropical transition. In 5 days or less, the system should merge with another large cyclonic circulation over the north Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 28.9N 59.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 37.0N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 42.0N 58.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z 54.0N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1800Z 62.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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