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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-09-05 16:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 051445 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 Larry continues as a large and intense hurricane this morning, with a 40 n mi diameter eye surround by cloud tops to near -80 deg C. There are, however, some breaks in the cold tops over the northern portion of the circulation. The current intensity is adjusted slightly to 110 kt, based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow remains somewhat restricted over the southwestern quadrant of the system, indicative of at least slight vertical shear. This shear is probably being caused by the flow to the east of an upper-level low to the north of Puerto Rico. The low is forecast to move northwestward over the next few days, possibly lessening the shear over Larry. The hurricane is moving northwestward at a slightly slower speed, or 310/11 kt. Larry is likely to continue its northwestward trek along the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone during the next 2-3 days, with only a slight reduction in forward speed. Around 96 hours, the hurricane is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest and north while rounding the western side of the ridge. By the end of the forecast period, Larry is expected to begin its recurvature into the mid-latitude westerlies. The new official forecast track essentially follows the previous one, and is also very close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus and Florida State University Superensemble guidance. Larry's large eye suggests that no rapid changes in strength are likely during the short term. Since vertical shear is not expected to increase and the system will be traversing warm waters, the hurricane should be able to more or less maintain its intensity during the next few days. One inhibiting factor is the presence of relatively dry mid-level air in the environment. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance and keeps Larry as a major hurricane through 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several days, likely as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 19.5N 49.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 20.5N 51.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 21.9N 52.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 23.0N 54.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 24.3N 55.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 25.7N 56.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 31.1N 61.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 37.4N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-09-05 16:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 051444 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 150SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.7W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 49.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 51.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.9N 52.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 55.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.7N 56.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 31.1N 61.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 37.4N 60.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-09-05 10:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050855 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 Larry remains a powerful hurricane this morning. The system has a warm, well-defined eye with a large diameter of around 40 n mi. Larry's central dense overcast has become more symmetric overnight, although the upper-level outflow is still somewhat restricted on the southwestern side of the hurricane. This is likely an indication of some vertical wind shear impinging on the cyclone. However, recent AMSR2 microwave data indicate that the vortex is still well-aligned vertically, with a pronounced eyewall that slopes outward with height. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt for this advisory based on consensus T5.5/102 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and a recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 105 kt. The initial motion of Larry is northwestward, or 305/12 kt. Larry is expected to continue moving northwestward for the next several days around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. By Thursday, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will move off the east coast of the United States later this week. The latest track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus aids. Confidence remains high in Larry's track forecast given the excellent model agreement. The hurricane is still expected to make its closest approach to Bermuda at days 4 and 5, but it remains too early to pinpoint how close it will come to the island. Even if the center passes east of Bermuda as forecast, it could still be large enough to produce some impacts on the island. Over the next few days, some fluctuations in Larry's intensity are possible. The oceanic heat content along the forecast track is certainly sufficient for some intensification. However, vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level trough/low to the west of Larry may inhibit strengthening at times during the next couple of days, especially if the stronger shear values in the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance are realized. Given Larry's large eye size, it does not appear as if the cyclone is poised to significantly intensify. The official NHC intensity forecast shows slight strengthening in the near-term, but then levels off the intensity through 48 h. The NHC forecast keeps Larry at major hurricane intensity through day 4, as the environment appears favorable enough between 48-96 h for Larry to maintain its organization, even as the cyclone gains latitude. Overall, this forecast lies on the high end of the intensity guidance, above the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and the other multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several days, possibly as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 18.8N 49.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 21.2N 52.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 22.4N 53.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 23.6N 55.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 25.0N 56.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 36.5N 61.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-09-05 10:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050845 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 49.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 49.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 48.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 52.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 53.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 55.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 56.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 36.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-09-05 04:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050232 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 48.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 48.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 49.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 51.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.7N 53.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.2N 56.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.8N 57.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 29.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 35.1N 61.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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