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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 29

2021-09-07 22:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 072054 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 After becoming rather ragged-looking in earlier satellite images, Larry's eye has become a little better defined recently, and the surrounding deep convection is more or less maintaining its strength. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the central pressure has fallen slightly, to 965 mb. Peak flight-level winds from the aircraft were 110 kt so the advisory intensity is kept at 100 kt. This is also consistent with a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. Larry continues its northwestward motion at about 320/8 kt. The hurricane should move around the western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone during the next 48-60 hours. After passing Bermuda, the system is likely to accelerate northeastward while moving into the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a trough moving from the northeastern United States to Atlantic Canada, and move into the far north Atlantic by day 5. The official track forecast stays close to the previous NHC prediction, and remains in good agreement the various model consensus solutions. The hurricane continues to exhibit well-defined upper-level outflow, indicative of weak vertical shear. Over the next couple of days, Larry will be traversing waters of gradually decreasing oceanic heat content. This, combined with some dry mid-level air in the environment, should lead to a gradual decrease in intensity through 48-60 hours. Later in the forecast period, colder waters and strong shear should cause more rapid weakening. By day 4, the global models show Larry merging with a frontal zone. Therefore, the NHC forecast calls for extratropical transition by that time. The official intensity forecast is generally below the statistical-dynamical guidance and above the coupled dynamical hurricane models through 72 hours, but in good agreement with the model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of Larry and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 25.1N 56.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 28.3N 58.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 30.5N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 53.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z 60.0N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 29

2021-09-07 22:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 072052 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 56.3W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 56.3W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 60.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 56.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-09-07 22:41:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072041 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 Over the past day or so, convection has gradually become better organized in association with the area of low pressure offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is now a large curved band to the east of the center, and outflow is increasing in all quadrants. Based on the improving convective organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. An ASCAT-B overpass a few hours ago indicated the peak winds associated with the depression were 26 kt, and assuming some undersampling, the initial advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. The depression has been moving slowly west-northwestward today, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. Another ridge is forecast to begin building from the southwestern United States to over northern Mexico tonight, which should turn the cyclone to the northwest. The system should then gradually accelerate through midweek as it gets caught in the flow between this ridge, and a mid- to upper-level trough to its west. By late in the forecast period, a turn to the west is expected as the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The model guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to the various model consensus solutions. It should be noted that based on this track forecast, the center of the cyclone would approach within 120 n mi of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Thursday. Therefore, any deviation in the track to the right would increase the chance for impacts to that area. There are very favorable environmental conditions around the depression that should allow for strengthening over the next couple of days. The only inhibiting factor for quick strengthening in the short term appears to be the lack of a tight circulation and inner-core convection. Because of this, the NHC intensity forecast is on the lower end of the guidance through the first 24 hours, nearest to the LGEM, as it appears the HWRF/HMON are a bit too aggressive in intensifying the cyclone during that time. By 24 hours, it is assumed that the inner-core will become better established, and faster strengthening is indicated from 24 to 48 hours. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a dry, stable atmospheric environment, which should cause weakening. By this weekend, the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast beyond 24 hours is very near the IVCN consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.2N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 18.4N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 19.0N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 20.0N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 22.4N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.5N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-09-07 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 072040 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.9W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.9W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 108.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.5N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 28

2021-09-07 16:59:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 071459 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and found that the hurricane has weakened somewhat. The central pressure has risen to 967 mb, and the eyewall is becoming less well defined. Satellite imagery shows that the eye is still evident but the deep convection has has decreased in coverage and intensity. Using a blend of flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft gives a current intensity estimate of 100 kt, although this may be generous. The hurricane continues to move northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Larry is forecast to move around the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone during the next couple of days. By 72 hours, the system should begin to accelerate northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric trough moving through the northeastern United States. Thereafter, Larry should be well-embedded in the higher-latitude southwesterly flow, pass near Newfoundland and move into the far North Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and in very close agreement with the latest NOAA corrected consensus and Florida State University (FSU) Superensemble tracks. Larry is in a low-shear environment with fairly well-defined upper-level outflow. However dry mid-level air and possible upwelling of cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation appear to be at least partially responsible for weakening. Since the environment does not appear to be very hostile for the next couple of days, only slow weakening is anticipated. The official intensity forecast for the next 48-72 hours lies below the statistical dynamical Decay-SHIPS guidance and above the coupled- HWRF dynamical model prediction. By 96 hours, the FSU cyclone phase analysis indicates that Larry will have undergone an extratropical transition, and this is also shown in the official forecast. Larry is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large hurricane. Given the expansive size of Larry's wind field and forecast uncertainties, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the island. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 24.4N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 31.8N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 34.9N 61.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 50.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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