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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-09-08 16:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081440 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 The depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Olaf this morning. A well-defined curved band now wraps over 50 percent around the center of the cyclone, with cloud tops to -80 degrees C. The initial intensity has been raised to 35 kt for this advisory based on the latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Olaf is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a moist environment for the next 36 hours or so. The only inhibiting factor to strengthening in the short term could be a slight increase in vertical wind shear beginning tonight. In a couple of days, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters and into a drier, much more stable atmospheric environment that favors rapid weakening. These unfavorable conditions should cause Olaf to degenerate into a remnant low this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast was decreased only slightly from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus. Although the NHC forecast no longer explicitly shows Olaf becoming a hurricane, this could still occur Thursday or Thursday night. The storm is now moving northwestward at 6 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico. This northwestward motion should continue for a couple of days with a gradual increase in forward speed. By Friday night, Olaf is expected to turn west-northwestward as it weakens, and by Saturday a westward motion is forecast as the cyclone becomes shallow and steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various multi-model consensus tracks. It should be noted that the model solutions that depict a stronger cyclone favor a track slightly more to the north than the NHC forecast, closer to the southern Baja peninsula, while the weaker model solutions lie to the south of the NHC forecast track. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes to the southwest of southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in these areas. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 18.9N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 19.6N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 23.5N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 23.8N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.7N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-09-08 16:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081439 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.5W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.5W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.6N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.5N 113.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.8N 115.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 107.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 31

2021-09-08 10:50:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080850 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 Larry's overall satellite presentation has not changed appreciably overnight, however there has been some recent cooling of the cloud tops in the surrounding ring of convection. A fairly recent AMSR2 microwave overpass has revealed a fragmented inner eye with a band or ring of convection at a fairly large radius from the center. Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are T5.0 (90 kt) while objective UW/CIMSS ADT T-numbers are around T5.8 (110 kt). A consensus of these estimates, and the latest SATCON estimate of 100 kt, is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this morning and should provide in situ data to help better ascertain the intensity and structure of the hurricane. Larry continues to move northwestward or 325/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning is once again unchanged from before. Larry is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western portion of a deep-layer ridge during the next 36 to 48 hours, with the center of the hurricane passing east of Bermuda on Thursday. After that time, Larry should begin to accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be moving across the northeastern United States, and this will bring the cyclone near or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 72 hours. The track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement, and only slight modifications were made to the previous official forecast. The updated NHC track is near the various consensus aids and the latest GFS ensemble mean. The hurricane is forecast to remain within an area of low vertical wind shear for the next day or two, but the upper-ocean heat content will be gradually decreasing along the forecast path. This, along with some upwelling beneath the relatively slow-moving hurricane, is likely to result in gradual weakening over the next couple of days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and much colder SSTs along the forecast track should result in additional weakening. The global models indicate that Larry will merge with a frontal zone and complete its extratropical transition in a little more than 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is once again similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with the IVCN consensus aid. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas today. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of Larry and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 26.5N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 28.0N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 30.1N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 32.9N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 36.7N 61.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 47.3N 52.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 58.8N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z 65.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-09-08 10:49:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080849 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 The circulation of the depression has continued to become better defined, and there has been a substantial increase in deep convection within bands to the north and northeast of the center. However, the inner core remains slightly displaced from this activity, and a combination of subjective and objective intensity estimates supports maintaining the cyclone as a 30-kt depression for this advisory. The system has either been meandering or its center re-formed yesterday, and the long-term motion is a drift toward the north-northwest (335 degrees) at about 3 kt. This motion is likely due to the depression being caught within weak steering currents between a mid-level low west of the Baja California peninsula and troughing extending across Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico. A strong mid-tropospheric high over the western United States should gradually cause the system to move faster toward the northwest during the next 2 to 3 days, bringing it very close to Baja California Sur in about 48 hours. Of the track models, the GFS and COAMPS-TC models are the solutions which bring the cyclone's center closest to Baja California Sur, while the ECMWF and UKMET models have the farther-offshore tracks. The new NHC track forecast splits the difference among these solutions and is a little east of the previous forecast during the first 36 hours to account for recent short-term motions. After 36 hours, it falls more or less in line with the previous prediction and is very close to the consensus aids, HWRF, and HMON. There are counteracting factors at play regarding the depression's future intensity. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be low, the GFS suggests that moderate to strong mid-level shear could develop below the outflow level during the next 24-48 hours. Sea surface temperatures will be plenty warm for strengthening during the next 48 hours, yet upper-level divergence is not expected to be ideal. Since the system's circulation appears to be improving, steady strengthening is forecast during the first 48 hours, and the depression could become a short-lived hurricane while it passes the Baja California peninsula. This forecast is near the upper end of the guidance envelope, close to the GFS, HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA solutions. The cyclone will be moving over colder waters in 2-3 days, which should cause quick weakening and a degeneration to remnant low status by day 4. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, and it could become a short-lived hurricane while it passes just to the southwest of southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for southern portions of Baja California Sur, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of the depression. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 18.5N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 19.1N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 20.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 22.3N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 23.9N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 24.1N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 23.6N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-09-08 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 410 WTPZ25 KNHC 080848 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO SANTA FE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.1W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.1W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.1N 107.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 111.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.6N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 107.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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