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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 16
2014-09-28 10:39:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280839 TCMEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0900 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 117.0W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 70SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 117.0W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 116.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.6N 117.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.2N 117.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.4N 117.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.2N 117.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.6N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 21.3N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 21.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 117.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-28 05:08:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Sep 2014 02:32:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Sep 2014 03:04:46 GMT
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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-09-28 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280231 TCDEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 Satellite imagery shows that the eye of Rachel has become somewhat better defined during the past several hours, and that the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled. Satellite intensity estimates are now 77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an objective estimate from the CIMSS ADT is 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 75 kt. The initial motion is now 340/6. Rachel is moving into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large deep-layer trough over the western United States. The large-scale models forecast the trough to move eastward after 12-24 hours, leaving Rachel stuck in an area of weak steering currents for a day or two. Beyond that time, Rachel or its remnants should be steered southwestward by a low-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific. There is little change in the guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is almost identical to the previous forecast. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. After that, a combination of increasing shear and the entrainment of a dry and stable airmass should cause a quick weakening. The new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for Rachel to degenerate to a remnant low in about three days time. The new forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast from 12-48 hours based on the initial intensity, and it is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.7N 116.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 22.1N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 22.2N 117.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.0N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 21.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 20.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-28 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL GETTING STRONGER... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 the center of RACHEL was located near 20.7, -116.6 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane RACHEL Public Advisory Number 15
2014-09-28 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 280231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 ...RACHEL GETTING STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 116.6W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WHILE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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