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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 15
2014-09-28 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280231 TCMEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0300 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 116.6W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 116.6W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.1N 117.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.2N 117.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 20.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 116.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2014-09-28 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 280231 PWSEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0300 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-27 23:08:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Sep 2014 20:33:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Sep 2014 21:04:47 GMT
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Hurricane RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2014-09-27 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 272032 PWSEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 2100 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Hurricane RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-27 22:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL BECOMES THE TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 the center of RACHEL was located near 20.3, -116.5 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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