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Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-26 10:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 08:51:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 09:21:57 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 33
2017-09-26 10:45:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 260845 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 Lee's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized this evening. The eye has cleared out and has warmed to nearly 10 degrees Celsius, and the eye wall cloud tops have cooled to -63 degrees Celsius. The initial intensity is increased modestly to 85 kt and is based on a blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers. It is worth noting that the ADT adjusted raw T-number yields an estimated intensity of 97 kt based on an eye scene-type. The previously noted southeasterly shear undercutting the diffluent flow aloft has certainly diminished and should remain low for the next 48 hours or so. During this initial period, Lee could get a little stronger as indicated in the HWRF hurricane model and the Decay-SHIPS. Afterward, increasing vertical shear, primarily due to the outflow generated by Maria, and decreasing sea surface temperatures should induce a gradual weakening trend as the cyclone moves into a high latitude baroclinic zone and ultimately becomes an extratropical cyclone in 4 days. The intensity forecast is basically an update of 6 hours ago, and follows an average of the IVCN and Florida State Superensemble guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/9 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue moving within the easterly mid-level steering flow, produced by a relatively narrow mid-tropospheric ridge situated to the north, during the next 24 hours. Afterward, a combination of a broad mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving out of the eastern Canadian Provinces and a subtropical ridge building east of Lee should steer the hurricane gradually northwestward and northward. On day 3 and beyond, Lee is forecast to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded in a deep-layer high latitude southwesterly flow downstream from the aforementioned shortwave trough. Global models and the Cyclone Phase Evolution analysis/forecast product show Lee become a extratropical cyclone no later than day 4. The NHC forecast track is a little south of the previous one through 48 hours, but similar thereafter, and is based on the TVCX and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 30.0N 52.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 29.9N 53.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 30.2N 55.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 30.9N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 32.2N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 36.9N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 44.5N 40.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0600Z 50.9N 22.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2017-09-26 10:44:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 260844 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-26 10:44:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE STILL STRENGTHENING AND MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 26 the center of Lee was located near 30.0, -52.5 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 33
2017-09-26 10:44:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 260844 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 ...LEE STILL STRENGTHENING AND MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 52.5W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1555 MI...2500 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 52.5 West. Lee is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is forecast early Wednesday, followed by a turn northwestward by Wednesday evening. Lee is forecast to turn northward and gradually increase in forward speed on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours or so. A weakening trend is expected to commence on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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