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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 32
2017-09-26 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 260238 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 ...LEE REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 51.5W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 51.5 West. Lee is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west with a slight increase in forward speed is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours, but a weakening trend is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Lee is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 32
2017-09-26 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 260238 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 51.5W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 51.5W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 51.0W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.2N 52.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.5N 54.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 55.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 35.3N 55.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 42.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 49.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-25 22:45:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 20:45:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 21:23:16 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 31
2017-09-25 22:39:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 252038 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 Little Lee has weakened a little since the previous advisory. Over the past few hours, the previously clear 10-15 nmi diameter eye has become cloud filled, briefly becoming completely obscured. An average of the available intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT, UW-CIMSS SATCON, and NHC AODT is 75 kt, and that is initial intensity used for this advisory. Lee has completed a tight cyclonic loop and is now moving toward the west-southwest or 255/07 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge is expected to continue building to the north of Lee, forcing the small hurricane on a westward track for the next day or so. As an upper-level trough approaches from the west, the hurricane should turn toward the northwest on Wednesday and Thursday as the western portion of the subtropical ridge erodes. By Friday and beyond, Lee is forecast to get caught up in the brisk southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough and accelerate toward the northeast at forward speeds in excess of 20 kt. The official track forecast has been shifted westward closer to the consensus models through 96 h, and then lies close to the previous advisory track at 120 h. The modest southeasterly vertical wind shear that has been affecting Lee today is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF global models to abate shortly, and remain at less than 10 kt for the next 48 hours or so. As a result, some slight strengthening will be possible when the cyclone moves over warmer 28 deg C SSTs in 36-48 hours. Afterwards, increasing southwesterly vertical shear should induce slow but steady weakening, with Lee making the transition into an extratropical low by 120 h when the cyclone will be located over 18C-20C water temperatures and in a 30-40 kt sheared environment. Lee is forecast to remain a compact hurricane throughout the forecast period, with only a small increase in the 50- and 34-kt wind radii expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 30.5N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 30.4N 51.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 30.5N 53.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 31.0N 55.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 31.8N 55.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 34.5N 54.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 40.2N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 46.9N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-25 22:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LITTLE LEE WEAKENS A LITTLE... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 25 the center of Lee was located near 30.5, -50.6 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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