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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-25 13:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
397 ABNT20 KNHC 251152 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Depression Leslie, located a little over 1100 miles west-southwest of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure located about 260 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and not well organized. However, this system could still become a tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and north-northeastward near the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later today and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. The remnants of Kirk are located about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at around 25 mph. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to near gale force in gusts on its north side. However, satellite data indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation. This disturbance could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Subtropical Depression Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical today after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic. After that time, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-25 13:30:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
863 ABPZ20 KNHC 251130 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-E, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A trough of low pressure located a little over 1400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is producing disorganized shower activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible through the end of the week while it moves westward into the central Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-25 07:15:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
136 ABNT20 KNHC 250515 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Subtropical Depression Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite data indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and not well organized. However, this system could still become a tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and north-northeastward near the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later today and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. The remnants of Kirk are located about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at around 25 mph. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to gale force on its north side. However, satellite data indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation. This disturbance could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Subtropical Depression Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical tonight after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic. After that time, Leslie could reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-25 07:13:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
276 ABPZ20 KNHC 250513 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 24 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a low pressure system located about 350 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A trough of low pressure located about 1600 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is producing disorganized shower activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible through the end of the week while it moves westward into the central Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-25 01:30:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
555 ABNT20 KNHC 242330 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south- southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become slightly more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form tonight or Tuesday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase and limit the chances for additional development while the system moves northward near the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina Tuesday and Tuesday night. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast on Tuesday. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, is located about 1300 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to gale force over the northern portion of the wave, while it moves quickly westward at around 25 mph. This system could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next few days before it encounters highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Subtropical Storm Leslie is expected to become post-tropical Tuesday night or Wednesday after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic. After that time, Leslie could reacquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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