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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-11-04 09:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 040852 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics
2020-11-04 03:45:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 02:45:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 03:31:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-04 03:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 Satellite images indicate that Odalys has not changed much since genesis earlier today. The cyclone still has a large curved band on the western side of the storm, but there is little organized convection to the east of the center. The overall circulation remains quite broad and appears elongated from northeast to southwest. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 kt at 0000Z, and the ADT and SATCON numbers from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are about the same. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Odalys could strengthen slightly overnight and early Wednesday while it remains over warm water and in moderate wind shear conditions. However, the models agree that any opportunity for strengthening should end in about 24 hours when Odalys moves into a region of strong southerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear. The combination of the increasing shear, cooler waters, and drier and more stable air should cause Odalys to begin weakening by Wednesday night or early Thursday. The cyclone is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday, but that could occur even sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in line with the majority of the guidance. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion, but at a slower pace, is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow Odalys should be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 14.9N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.0N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.3N 120.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 18.1N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-11-04 03:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 040238 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 5 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Odalys (EP5/EP202020)
2020-11-04 03:37:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ODALYS COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Nov 3 the center of Odalys was located near 14.9, -117.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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