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Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics
2020-11-04 09:54:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 08:54:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 08:54:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-04 09:52:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020 184 WTPZ45 KNHC 040852 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020 Odalys continues to be characterized by a broad, northeast to southwest oriented circulation with rather sporadic deep convection near the center along with some banding features well displaced to the north and south. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed little change in intensity, with an area of 30-35 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. Based on these values and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt. Strengthening is no longer anticipated, as Odalys has not been able to take advantage of the warm waters in an environment of ample atmospheric moisture and moderate wind shear. By Thursday morning, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly vertical wind shear while moving over waters of about 26 C. By late Thursday, the system will also enter a dry and stable atmospheric environment. These increasingly hostile conditions should cause Odalys to weaken, with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection in 2-3 days. The latest intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity guidance models. Odalys is moving northwestward at 14 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next day or so as the storm moves on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. As Odalys weakens later this week, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow cyclone should be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models remain tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 15.6N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Odalys (EP5/EP202020)
2020-11-04 09:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ODALYS CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Nov 4 the center of Odalys was located near 15.6, -118.5 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 3
2020-11-04 09:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 040852 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ODALYS CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 118.5W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 118.5 West. Odalys is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast by late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Odalys should begin weakening by Thursday, and could become a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-11-04 09:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 040852 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 118.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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