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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-14 13:22:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 141122 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Norbert, located a couple of hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Norbert are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Norbert are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-14 10:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 08:38:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 08:38:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-10-14 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140837 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Norbert continues to produce a concentrated area of deep convection, but it has been very difficult pinpointing the exact location of the center overnight. Earlier ASCAT data and an 0152 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass suggests that the center could be a little north of the previous estimates, but overnight shortwave infrared imagery and TAFB and SAB fixes still place it closer to the southern portion of the convective mass. The advisory position is a compromise between the various estimates, but leans toward the previous track out of respect for continuity. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 35 kt, which is used as the initial wind speed for this advisory. The earlier ASCAT overpass revealed some slightly stronger wind vectors, but these appear to have been rain inflated. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 325/13 kt. Norbert is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low to its northwest. This general heading should continue over the next 24 to 36 hours with some reduction in forward speed as Norbert begins to weaken and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The dynamical models are in general agreement, but there are differences in how fast and far north Norbert will move. The models that maintain a deeper cyclone depict a more poleward motion. The NHC track leans toward the southern solutions by 24 hours since Norbert is likely to weaken and become a more vertically shallow system by that time. Norbert only has a short window of opportunity in which to strengthen this morning. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should begin to weaken the tropical storm. Norbert is likely to become a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours as it encounters sea surface temperatures below 26C, moderate to strong shear, and a more stable atmosphere. The global models indicate that the low will dissipate within a couple of days, and the NHC forecast follows suit. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 22.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 23.5N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 24.9N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 26.0N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-14 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 the center of Norbert was located near 22.1, -113.3 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 22
2020-10-14 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 140836 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...NORBERT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 113.3W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 113.3 West. Norbert is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning, but the tropical storm is forecast to begin weakening by later today. Norbert is forecast to become a remnant low tonight or early Thursday, and dissipate by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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