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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-10-14 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 235 WTPZ24 KNHC 142032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.9N 115.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.9N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-14 19:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 141743 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure approaching the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit significant development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles today, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and Hispaniola on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-14 19:24:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
556 ABPZ20 KNHC 141724 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Norbert, located a couple of hundred miles west-northwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Norbert are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Norbert are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-14 16:47:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 14:47:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 15:24:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-10-14 16:46:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 141446 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Recent satellite imagery suggests Norbert is beginning to feel the effects of deep-layer shear and drier mid-level air associated with a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered to its west-northwest. While Norbert still shows signs of organization, the deepest convection is now displaced to the north of the estimated center position. The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt this morning based on objective and subjective current intensity Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS, SAB, and TAFB. It is likely that Norbert has peaked in terms of its intensity. Norbert's estimated initial motion is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 h, with a gradual decrease in forward speed as the upper low pulls away from Norbert. There is increasing spread noted in the model track guidance as the steering flow weakens between 24-48 h, but the general trend is for a slightly more northward motion during this time. Only minor adjustments were made to the official NHC track forecast, which remains close to the various consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA. Increasing deep-layer shear, drier mid-level air, and cooler sea-surface temperatures are expected to induce a weakening trend beginning later today, and Norbert will likely become a tropical depression this afternoon. The GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests Norbert will lose its deep convection within the next 24-36 h, and the official NHC forecast shows the system degenerating to a remnant low before dissipation at 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 23.1N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 24.4N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 25.6N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 26.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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