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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-06 03:03:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
015 ABNT20 KNHC 060103 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Gamma, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and on strengthening Hurricane Delta, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea about 150 miles southwest of western Jamaica. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-06 01:13:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 052313 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Marie, located over the western part of the basin, and on newly developed Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This disturbance is producing only disorganized cloudiness and a few showers. Some slight development of this system is possible over the next day or so while the system moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Another broad area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is currently producing only limited shower and thunderstorm activity, but conditions could become a little more conducive for development in a couple of days. This disturbance is forecast to move generally northwestward at a very slow forward speed through most of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-10-05 22:58:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052058 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better-defined today. The associated deep convection has also become more organized and convection has persisted over the low-level center since early this morning. In addition, a banding feature has also developed over the western portion of the circulation. Based on these trends, advisories have been initiated for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The ASCAT data showed winds as high as 32 kt. However, these vectors were at the very edge of the data swath, and may be unreliable. The initial intensity of 30 kt is therefore based off the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The forecast for the depression is not straightforward and there is a larger than normal amount of uncertainty for both the future track and intensity of the cyclone. The global models generally do not favor much strengthening beyond 24 h and some of the guidance, including the GFS and HWRF indicate weakening. On the other hand, the SHIPS guidance suggests gradual strengthening and indicate the cyclone could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The overall environment appears conducive for the depression to intensify over the next several days, with very warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with. One negative influence that the global models could be picking up on is an ongoing interaction with the larger scale Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The NHC forecast, out of respect for the skilled global and dynamical models, does not show as a robust rate of strengthening as suggested by the SHIPS guidance. However, some intensification is indicated throughout the forecast period due to the aforementioned favorable environmental factors. The initial motion of the depression is 340/6 kt. This motion is expected to continue through tonight as the depression is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to weaken tomorrow and steering currents over the depression are expected to collapse through the middle of the week. The track guidance is highly divergent after 48 h, as the models appear to steer the cyclone in varying directions based off the interaction with the ITCZ in the midst of weak synoptic steering. By the end of the forecast period, the models are generally in better agreement on a slow northwesterly motion as the ridge rebuilds to the northeast of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 12.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-10-05 22:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 052055 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Visible satellite imagery shows that the convective banding of Delta has continued to quickly improve since this morning. The primary convective band now wraps entirely around the center, with what appears to be a banding-type eye feature occasionally noted. There are some dry slots between the convective bands but those appear to be gradually filling in. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently collecting data in the storm environment found peak SFMR winds of 55 kt during its first pass through the center from northwest to southeast. The plane also reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb, much lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also observed an 18 nmi-wide-eye that was open to the west-northwest. Assuming that there are stronger winds yet to be sampled in the northeastern quadrant, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. Delta is situated within a very conducive environment for strengthening. The storm will be moving over SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain 5 kt or less while Delta traverses the northwestern Caribbean. These conditions are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follow suit by calling for rapid intensification over the next day or so, and Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane when is passes near or over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Once the storm reaches the central Gulf of Mexico in 60-72 hours, increasing southwestern vertical wind shear and cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in wind speed as the system nears the northern Gulf coast. Although there is still significant uncertainty regarding Delta's intensity when it nears the northern Gulf coast, it is becoming increasing likely that the system will pose a significant wind and storm surge threat to a portion of that area. The center has jogged southward again this afternoon, which appears to be primarily due to the system organizing rather than a true storm motion. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 275/7 kt. Delta should begin moving west-northwestward this evening, and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast is expected over the next couple of days. The more southward initial position and more ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has resulted in a significant westward shift in the track envelope through the first 60-72 hours. The NHC has been adjusted in that direction, and this has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. After 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop over Texas which should cause Delta to turn northward and then north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Although the track forecast has not changed much during the latter portion of the period, there is more cross-track spread in the model guidance than before, which has increased the uncertainty regarding potential landfall and the timing of Delta's approach to the northern Gulf Coast. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and are possible in extreme western Cuba beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands beginning tonight or early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Delta Graphics
2020-10-05 22:55:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 20:55:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 20:55:18 GMT
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