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Tag: tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-06 19:27:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 061727 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Leeward Islands is gradually becoming better defined. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms are still not well organized. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on Monday while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located just off the coast of western Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall is likely there Monday night and Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or two while it moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. After that time, unfavorable upper-level winds should limit its formation chances. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A trough of low pressure located just southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
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tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-06 19:17:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 061716 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Julio, located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Julio are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Julio are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-06 16:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio has surprisingly accelerated west-northwestward during the past few hours, moving around the northeast periphery of a broad trough of low pressure. The tiny tropical storm continues to produce small but frequent bursts of central convection and has not changed appreciably since the most recent ASCAT pass that supported an intensity of 40 kt. Julio's future is unusually unclear for a system that is forecast to dissipate. The global models are struggling to resolve Julio, and only the ECMWF has a realistic current depiction of the cyclone. Those models universally indicate that Julio will either dissipate or be absorbed by the aforementioned broad area of low pressure located to its southwest within the next 24 to 36 hours. This is certainly plausible given Julio's small size and limited convection. On the other hand, the HWRF and HMON models now indicate that Julio will not only persist through day 5, but potentially strengthen when upper-level winds are forecast to become less hostile in a couple days. The disagreement can not be explained entirely by model resolution as the COAMPS-TC also weakens Julio. I see no clear reason to support one solution over another at this point. Therefore, the official forecast continues to show dissipation for now, though the intensity has been hedged slightly higher at 48 h and 60 h. The NHC track forecast leans heavily on the HWRF and HMON models and has been adjusted significantly faster for the first 24 h due to Julio's recent acceleration. Much larger changes may be required to the forecast later today or tonight if it becomes more likely that Julio will persist longer than currently indicated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 19.2N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 20.3N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 20.4N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 20.2N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 20.2N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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julio
Tropical Storm Julio Graphics
2020-09-06 16:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 14:34:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 14:34:27 GMT
Tags: graphics
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julio
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Tropical Storm Julio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-06 16:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 061432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 50 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 110W 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 6( 6) 39(45) 5(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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