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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-06 10:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060831 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.0W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.0W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 113.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.2N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-06 07:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 060533 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Julio, located a couple of hundred miles west of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Julio are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Julio are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-06 07:22:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 060522 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave and area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected while it moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two as the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for formation. This wave is expected to move westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Another tropical wave located over western Africa is forecast to move over the eastern tropical Atlantic on Sunday. Gradual development of this system is then expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Julio Graphics
2020-09-06 04:52:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 02:52:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 03:24:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-06 04:51:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060251 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020 Satellite imagery, including recently received microwave overpasses, shows that Julio has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with the small low-level circulation center is located near the eastern edge of the small area of central convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on continuity and a satellite intensity estimated from TAFB. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. The latest global models runs continue to have trouble resolving Julio, but overall the cyclone is embedded in an east-southeasterly flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. A general west- northwestward motion should continue with a decrease in forward speed until the system dissipates. The new forecast track again leans more toward the ECMWF model, which does the best job of resolving Julio. The tropical storm will be affected by moderate to strong easterly wind shear for the next day or two, and only sight strengthening is likely during that time. While the shear is forecast to diminish after 24-36 h, the cyclone will encounter a drier and more stable air mass at that time, which should lead to the dissipation of the small system. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies below the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.6N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 106.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.5N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 19.4N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 20.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 21.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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