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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 20
2020-09-05 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051438 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 ...OMAR STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 57.3W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 57.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster north-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Omar is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by early Sunday, and to dissipate by early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-09-05 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 051438 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-09-05 16:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 051438 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 57.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 57.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 39.0N 56.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 41.9N 53.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 45.2N 49.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 57.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-05 13:42:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 051142 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Sep 5 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small well-defined low pressure system is located about 150 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. This system is producing a large area of thunderstorms well to the west and northwest of its center and a smaller area of showers near its center. Although conditions do not appear to be favorable for much further development, overnight satellite-derived wind data indicated that this system is already producing winds near tropical-storm-force and only a small increase in thunderstorm activity near the surface center of circulation would result in the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm. This system is expected to move generally west-northwestward, near or along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of development, this low could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. For more information, please consult products from your local meteorological office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-05 13:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
860 ABNT20 KNHC 051141 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Omar, located about 500 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Shower activity has become less organized in association with a trough of low pressure located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. Significant development of this system is not expected, as it will likely be hindered by the interaction with a large tropical wave located a few hundred miles to its east. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave and area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected while it moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week when the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Gradual development of this system is then expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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