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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-05 10:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 08:39:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 08:39:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-05 10:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050834 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar continues to produce bursts of deep convection that are being sheared to the south of the center of circulation. However, these busts are near enough to the center for the system to still qualify as a tropical cyclone. Since Omar is now finally beginning to head for cooler waters, convection will likely decrease and Omar should become a remnant low within 24 hours. As expected, the cyclone is now moving north-northeastward, or 020/6 kt. A continued generally north-northeast track with acceleration is likely, under the influence of an approaching large mid-level trough. The official track forecast is similar to the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 36.2N 57.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 37.6N 56.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 40.1N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 43.0N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-09-05 10:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 050833 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-05 10:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of Omar was located near 36.2, -57.1 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-05 10:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 304 WTNT35 KNHC 050833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 ...OMAR STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 57.1W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 57.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general direction of motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Omar is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Sunday, and to dissipate by late Sunday or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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