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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-04 13:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041137 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Omar, located about 400 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the north-central Atlantic about 500 miles south-southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland. This low is expected to move north-northeastward near 15 mph, and some slight subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible before it reaches cooler waters tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A nearly stationary broad area of low pressure is located over the east-central tropical Atlantic about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gradual development is possible after the larger tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands passes to the north of this system on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected as it moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week when the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Gradual development of this system is then expected, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-04 13:36:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 041136 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Atlantic basin Tropical Depression Nana have increased over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the past several hours. Some slight development is possible during the next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward, near or along the southern coast of Mexico. Unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity to land should inhibit further development by late this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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eastern
Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-04 10:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 08:37:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 09:24:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-04 10:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040835 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Although it is situated over fairly warm waters of a little over 27 deg C, Omar has been producing very little deep convection overnight while it continues to be affected by strong northerly shear. Some dry air is also being entrained into the circulation. The current intensity of 25 kt is based on continuity from earlier scatterometer measurements. If the lack of convection continues, Omar will be declared a remnant low pressure system later today. In any event, the cyclone should become absorbed by a frontal trough within a couple of days. After turning east-southeastward, Omar is now headed east at a rather slow pace, or 090/6 kt. The system should turn toward the northeast and accelerate ahead of a large mid-level trough within 36-48 hours. The official forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one but slower than the latest track model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 35.3N 58.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 35.6N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z 36.5N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 38.1N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 40.5N 54.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-04 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR SOON TO BE A REMNANT LOW... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 4 the center of Omar was located near 35.3, -58.5 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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