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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-04 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040834 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 ...OMAR SOON TO BE A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 58.5W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 58.5 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Omar is likely to degenerate into a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-09-04 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 040834 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-04 10:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040834 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 58.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 58.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.6N 57.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.5N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 38.1N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 40.5N 54.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 58.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-04 07:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 040539 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 3 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The remnants of Atlantic basin Tropical Depression Nana are moving into the eastern Pacific waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to inhibit significant development through early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward, near or along the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-04 07:39:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 040539 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Nana, which has dissipated near the Guatemala-Mexico border, and is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Omar, located about 400 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the north-central Atlantic, about 600 miles south of Cape Race Newfoundland. This low is expected to move north-northeastward near 15 mph, and some slight subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible before it reaches cooler waters tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, while moving little. Gradual development is possible early next week once the larger tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands passes to the north of the system on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an extensive area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is expected to be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. After that, a tropical depression is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa over the weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form from the wave early next week. Gradual development of this low is then expected, and a tropical depression could form while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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