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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-12 13:04:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121104 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Although upper-level winds are currently only marginally conducive for the development of a tropical cyclone, environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next couple of days while the system moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-07-12 10:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120834 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Conventional satellite and scatterometer data indicate that Cristina has weakened during the past several hours. Deep convection has become fragmented near the center of the cyclone, with only a small amount in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB gives an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory, and this value is also quite close to a recent scatterometer pass as well. Cristina should gradually lose strength during the next few days due to a combination of very cool waters and increasing shear, along with nearby dry air. These factors will likely cause the storm to transition into a non-convective remnant low on Monday. The intensity forecast is lowered from the previous one, mostly due to the decreased initial intensity, and the remnant low timing is earlier as well. The storm is moving a little north of due west, or 275/11. A well-defined subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific should keep this general motion going for the next several days. The model guidance has changed little since the last cycle, so no significant changes were made to the track forecast. None of the global models hold onto the low-level circulation for long beyond 72 hours, so dissipation is now shown by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 20.7N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-12 10:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 08:32:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 09:24:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-07-12 10:31:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 120831 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 10 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-12 10:31:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 the center of Cristina was located near 20.7, -123.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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