je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-11 13:31:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 111130 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad low pressure system that has developed southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development of a tropical cyclone, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for the formation of a tropical depression in two to three days while the system moves quickly westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-11 13:14:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
875 ABNT20 KNHC 111114 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay, located over New England. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five days. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-11 10:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 08:34:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 09:31:48 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
cristina
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-07-11 10:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Despite being over relatively cool 24 C waters, Cristina is maintaining its strength for now. Deep convection wraps most of the way around the center and is strongest on the south side of the circulation. There remains a large spread in the satellite intensity estimates that currently range from 45 kt to 65 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt north of the center. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Cristina is moving toward even cooler waters and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should cause weakening soon, and the storm is forecast to lose all of its deep convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 60 hours when it will be over SSTs of around 22 C. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models and calls for steady weakening during the next several days. Cristina is still moving west-northwestward, and it should continue moving in that direction for the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge remains parked over the southwestern United States. Beyond that time, a westward motion is expected as the weak and shallow post-tropical cyclone should be steered by the low-level trade winds. The models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-07-11 10:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 110832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 72 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 120W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Sites : [2046] [2047] [2048] [2049] [2050] [2051] [2052] [2053] [2054] [2055] [2056] [2057] [2058] [2059] [2060] [2061] [2062] [2063] [2064] [2065] next »