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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-07-12 22:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 122031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 125.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 125.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.4N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.5N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-12 19:47:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
616 ABPZ20 KNHC 121747 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located about 1000 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with a small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as the system moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-12 19:17:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121717 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-12 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 14:35:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 15:24:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-07-12 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cristina's convective pattern continues to rapidly erode with only a small patch of moderate convection remaining in the northeastern quadrant. Based on overnight scatterometer winds of 39 kt and the significant decrease in convection since that time, it is assumed that additional vortex spindown has occurred over 23 deg C water, and the initial intensity is therefore decreased to 35 kt, which is also supported by a blend of the latest CI-satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina is moving westward or 280/11 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with Cristina expected to continue in a general westerly direction until dissipation occurs in 72-96 h over the extreme eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin. Cristina should continue to spin down as the cyclone moves over near 22 deg C SSTs, becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours. It is possible that Cristina could degenerate into an open wave sooner than currently forecast due to the abundance of dry, stable air that the cyclone will be ingesting. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.7N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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