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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-07-11 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 112040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 125W 34 1 19(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-07-11 22:39:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 112039 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 121.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-11 19:23:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 111722 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has become a little better defined this morning. Although upper-level winds are currently only marginally conducive for development of a tropical cyclone, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression in two or three days while the system moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-11 19:15:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 111715 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five days. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-11 16:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 14:37:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 14:37:26 GMT
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