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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-09 10:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Cristina was located near 16.8, -109.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 11
2020-07-09 10:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090830 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 109.4W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 109.4 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Cristina will remain well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Cristina could become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-07-09 10:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090830 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-09 07:10:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 090510 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Surface observations along with satellite and radar data indicate that an area of low pressure located about 50 miles east of Wilmington, North Carolina, is gradually becoming better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms are still disorganized, however, and are mostly confined to the east of the center. The low is expected to move northeastward or north-northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks later today and then along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone will likely form later today or tonight. Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks today, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-09 07:09:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 090509 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A nearly stationary broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a limited amount of shower activity. Environmental conditions are anticipated to become increasingly unfavorable during the next day or so, and development of this system is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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