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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-07-09 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 122.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.6N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-09 01:49:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 082349 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure located about 60 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters and portions of eastern North Carolina. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so. Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-09 01:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 082334 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become much less organized since yesterday. Development, if any, of this nearly stationary low will be slow to occur during the next two days before environmental conditions become unfavorable. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-08 22:53:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 20:53:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 21:24:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-07-08 22:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082050 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 Cristina is having some difficulty this afternoon in maintaining deep convection over its center. Briefly, the low-level center became apparent via GOES-16 visible imagery just north of its main convective mass. This exposed center was also confirmed by a 1756Z 37 GHz color image from the GPM satellite. The more-easily-observed center allows for a confident assessment of its northwest motion at 11 kt. Cristina should turn back to the west-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed tomorrow as a broad mid-level ridge builds north of the tropical storm. That motion should continue for the next few days until Cristina turns to the west and accelerates slightly as its remnant low is steered by the near-surface trade winds. The global and hurricane dynamical models are in close agreement on this forecast track, which is slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position of Cristina. The Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB not changing at 18Z as well as the partially exposed center indicate that the earlier intensification has temporarily ceased. A 50-kt maximum wind remains the current intensity, though the ASCAT-A pass and SATCON satellite consensus suggests that this may be somewhat generous. Conditions are quite conducive for intensification in the short term, as SSTs are above 28C, mid-level humidity is near 75 percent, and deep tropospheric vertical shear is only 5-10 kt. However, the SSTs are already cooling along the track of Cristina and it should pass over the 27C SST isotherm in about 36-48 hours. After 48 hours, the thermodynamic components quickly become hostile for the system. The statistical and mesoscale hurricane models have backed off some more and the peak intensity has been lowered slightly compared to the previous advisory. It does appear that the opportunity for Cristina to rapidly intensify is diminishing. Cristina is expected to become a remnant low in four to five days, once deep convection ceases. The aforementioned ASCAT-A scatterometer pass confirmed the rather small size - 60 nm maximum wind radii in the southeastern quadrant - of Cristina this afternoon. Only a modest increase in size is expected over the next couple of days based on the RVCN consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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