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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-08 19:30:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 081730 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of northeastern South Carolina continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters and portions of eastern North Carolina. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so. Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-08 16:58:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 14:58:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 15:24:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-08 16:58:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081457 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 First light satellite images show that the convective organization of Cristina is gradually improving, while banding features are developing across the northern portion of the circulation. The center remains underneath the northeastern side of the main area of convection due to moderate shear, but this shear appears to be diminishing. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina turned to the northwest and slowed down to about 10 kt this morning. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected to occur later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to continue for the next few days as the cyclone is steered by a large ridge centered over the southwestern United States. Later in the forecast period, a turn to the west is expected as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by the low-level easterlies. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the envelope. The decreasing shear over Cristina combined with warm SSTs and a moist air mass should allow the cyclone to intensify over the next couple of days. After that time, the system will cross over the 26 C isotherm and enter into a drier and more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause a steady weakening trend to begin after 48 h. Although the forecast still shows Cristina as a tropical storm in 5 days, it is possible all of the deep convection would have dissipated by that time. The latest NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 18.5N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 20.2N 119.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 21.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 21.5N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-08 16:53:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 the center of Cristina was located near 14.6, -106.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-08 16:53:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 081452 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ...CRISTINA STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 106.9W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 106.9 West. Cristina is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the cyclone will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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