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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-07-07 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 4 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 20(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 8(66) X(66) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 5(36) X(36) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 12(52) X(52) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) X(27) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 10(45) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-07 19:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 071733 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure located inland over northeastern Georgia continues to produce a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the southeastern U.S. The low is expected to move generally northeastward toward the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states and some development of this system is possible later this week if it moves over water. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-07 19:19:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 071719 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days while it drifts generally northward. By late this week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent gradual development this weekend while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-07 16:49:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 14:49:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 14:49:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-07 16:48:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071448 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 Early morning microwave and first-light visible imagery revealed that the center of Cristina was located well to the east-northeast of previous estimates. The center is now located near the end of a long curved band that goes around portions of its western semicircle. The center position relative to the convection suggests that at least some northeasterly shear is negatively affecting the organization of Cristina and it may not be well vertically aligned yet. Various satellite intensity estimates have increased since the last advisory, but were also based in part on an assumption that the center of Cristina was located farther west, so the initial wind speed has been conservatively held at 35 kt for now. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a fair amount to the east of the previous one, mainly due to the updated initial position. That said, the overall thinking behind the forecast has not changed. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer Cristina on a general west-northwestward path through the end of the week. The official forecast is very near the latest multi-model consensus at all forecast times. The shear and some nearby dry air that appear to have inhibited Cristina's organization so far are not expected to persist as negative factors for much longer. All of the models still forecast strengthening, and given the very favorable environment that the cyclone will encounter in a day or two, a period of rapid intensification at some point would not be surprising. The NHC forecast remains near the high end of the guidance envelope, near the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Cristina is forecast to reach cooler waters that will likely lead to weakening over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 12.2N 102.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.9N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.0N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 15.9N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 17.9N 113.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 21.0N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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