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Tropical Depression Three-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-06-24 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 242031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 2100 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-06-24 19:28:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 241728 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly- developed Tropical Depression Three-E, located about 1800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a wide area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or so while the system moves westward at about 15 mph. After that time, it is expected to move over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Gradual development of this system will be possible over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Latto
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pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-06-24 19:19:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 241719 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly, located a few hundred miles south of Newfoundland. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Three-E Graphics
2020-06-24 16:58:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jun 2020 14:58:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jun 2020 14:58:58 GMT
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tropical depression
Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-06-24 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241457 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 The small low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has acquired enough organized convection near and southwest of the center to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression 3-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 275/6. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the northwest and west. This evolution should cause the depression to move northwestward between 24-72 h. After that, the cyclone should be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the balance of the forecast period. The official track forecast is near the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening trend, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near 120 h. The forecast peak intensity of 45 kt is near the upper end of the intensity guidance, with the remainder of the forecast near the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 10.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 10.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.0N 135.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 12.6N 137.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 13.2N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 13.5N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 12.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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