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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-06-24 01:26:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 232326 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Jun 23 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A nearly stationary area of low pressure is located about 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although this disturbance has a well-defined circulation, it is producing only limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to support the redevelopment of thunderstorms and the system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system could become a tropical depression during the next day or two before it moves over cooler waters that will inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression in a few days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Gradual development of this system will be possible over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-06-24 01:05:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 232305 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly, located several hundred miles southwest of Newfoundland. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Dolly Graphics
2020-06-23 22:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 20:35:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 21:24:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-06-23 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 232033 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 Dolly's structure has continued to improve somewhat during the day with convective banding now extending around the eastern and northern side of the circulation. While water vapor imagery indicates that an upper-level low is still in the vicinity of Dolly, that feature is displaced from the cyclone a bit, with some anticyclonic outflow noted in the cirrus canopy. This structure further supports the analysis of Dolly's transition to a tropical storm. For intensity, there is a wide range among satellite estimates, with TAFB and SAB ranging from 25-35 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates between 45-50 kt. The initial intensity will remain 40 kt on this advisory, matching what was shown by the earlier scatterometer data. Dolly continues to move east-northeastward with an initial motion of 060/10 kt. Strengthening mid-latitude southwesterly flow is expected to cause Dolly to turn northeastward and begin accelerating tonight into Wednesday, and the track guidance is in good agreement on the future path and speed of the storm. Dolly's future track will take it over much colder waters and into a higher-shear environment over the next day or so, which should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. Dissipation is still shown at 48 hours, but global models fields indicate that the circulation could open up before then as the system nears the southeastern tip of Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 40.1N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 41.2N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 43.1N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dolly (AT4/AL042020)
2020-06-23 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DOLLY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE GULF STREAM CURRENT... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Jun 23 the center of Dolly was located near 40.1, -61.1 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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