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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-29 01:11:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 282311 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 28 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Nora, located near the coast of west-central Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-29 01:11:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 282311 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ida, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the central tropical Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive for further development, only a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression later tonight or on Sunday. In a couple of days, the system is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system. The disturbance is expected to drift eastward through tonight, then accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form toward the end of next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-08-28 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 282035 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2021-08-28 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 20:35:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 21:28:54 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-28 22:34:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 282034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 This afternoon's satellite presentation consists of an exposed surface circulation with a rather shapeless convective mass displaced to the east and north of the center. Without question, the 15 to 20 kt of west-northwesterly shear is doing a number on the cloud pattern. Also evident, are a number of arc clouds propagating away from the system's deep convection, certainly indicative of dry air intrusion. Consequently, the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt for this advisory. The global models as well as the Decay SHIPS (ECMWF/GFS) intensity guidance still show the shear relaxing a bit tonight and into Sunday, which should allow the depression to briefly become a tropical storm. By Monday, however, the shear is forecast to increase while the cyclone moves into an even more dry and stable air mass. These inhibiting contributions should stifle further strengthening and weaken the cyclone back to a depression through the remainder of the forecast period. It's worth mentioning that the GFS indicates that the depression will become a remnant low in 72 hours while turning northwestward to west-northwestward within the tradewind flow and dissipate by the end of the week. For now, the NHC forecast will stick with the consensus intensity models and the SHIPS guidance which agree on maintaining a depression through day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. The depression remains embedded in low- to mid-level southerly flow produced by a mid-Atlantic trough dominating the central Atlantic. This synoptic feature, along with a subtropical high pressure located over the east Atlantic and western Africa, should influence a generally northward motion through the 5-day period. The official track forecast again is adjusted a little to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN and HCCA multimodel solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.6N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 18.2N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 21.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 31/0600Z 22.5N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 23.8N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 27.2N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 30.5N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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